In this round of rising, most people missed the opportunity; such left-side rebound markets are indeed normal. What's strange is that in this round of market movements, I haven't seen people lamenting their missed opportunities; everyone's reaction is minimal, and there's no FOMO sentiment. Is everyone now numb to blockchain?
Data also shows that contract trading is predominant, with the data remaining stable. The disparity between spot and contract trading is at least several times; historically, contract trading volume usually exceeds spot trading volume, but the gap has become too pronounced in the past month or two. Spot data shows significant fluctuations, clearly impacted by price. Spot trading only saw significant increases today, with a notable upward trend starting in March. In May, on the busiest day, the contract trading volume was nearly 14 times that of spot trading. Recently, the altcoins that have risen significantly in the spot market are almost all ETH-related, particularly ETH liquid staking Ethfi, which has doubled in a week, including underperforming layer-2 networks that have also shown performance.
Most of the others are still MEME coins. Market sentiment hasn't picked up yet; normally, when the market hasn't reached a FOMO stage, it tends to choose to rise. However, the position is too high, and the lack of pullbacks makes participation difficult. Most sidelined funds will prioritize altcoins. Currently, BTC is only 6.6% away from its historical high; if it continues to rise, altcoins will have an opportunity. It may not necessarily be an altcoin season, but there will be good gains. Technically, many altcoins have already formed bottom patterns.
From another perspective, the mountain cold index shows that the index has already formed a bottom structure. The last time it formed a bottom structure was at the beginning of the rise last November, and at that time, this index was used to buy altcoins. However, the market background during the rise in November and December was different, as the expectations for altcoins were much stronger than now. Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. April non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year will be released, expected to be 2.4%.
Today's focus:
1. After the preliminary consensus on China-U.S. trade, Wall Street is worried about the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates by the end of the year and has lowered the probability of a U.S. recession; Citigroup has pushed back its prediction for the next Fed rate cut from June to July.
2. On-chain Ikun Little Gold Dog, with a market cap of around 15M, has already been listed on Moonshot. Useless is currently hovering around a market cap of 20M.
3. After the launch of the Bonk platform, pumps are in a complete panic. Last night it was announced that developers can receive up to 50% of the fees. This move has both pros and cons, as only after the developers completely leave can the community truly thrive. If the fees still have to be shared with the developers, who will be the CTO, who will build? Shouldn't the fees be given to the traders?
4. The Truth platform debunked rumors; there was no issuance of memes. However, the Trump team is addicted to issuing coins. I don't believe they won't issue; they may do so in other ways, likely issuing utility tokens rather than memes.
5. Although on-chain activity is lively, the main battlefield is still in the old memes. #moodeng #pnut #neiro have shown short-term pullbacks, but they can still be monitored. This wave of market movements has only just begun, and the pumping sentiment needs to brew.
6. Trump memes have launched a points market, but the tokens began to retract last night along with the broader market. This can still be monitored; the team's ability to stir things up is beyond doubt.
7. The phenomenon of account hacking has intensified in recent days. Everyone should avoid FOMOing into wallet authorizations upon seeing links. The official X accounts of ZKsync and Matter Labs have both been hacked.
8. Binance Alpha will launch RDAC trading on May 13 at 18:00, and the new points consumption mechanism will apply to RDAC airdrops.
9. The points from yesterday's puffer airdrop surprisingly surged to 186, forcing users to increase trading volume. Currently, Alpha is waiving fees, so everyone might as well trade a bit more each day.
Which coin will be the next to reach a new high?
Currently, the secondary market is very fragmented; 99% of altcoins on Binance are extremely poor, lacking narrative and consensus. The old, stale stories have yet to be fully told after years. The current secondary market has reached a point of 'value investing.' Only those coins with truly strong fundamentals, whether memes or application coins, have the opportunity to continue advancing with this bull market. Sol and Sui are great examples.
From this perspective, BNB will be the next public chain to quickly reach a new high.
Additionally, Doge, Dogecoin, under the influence of this round of meme coin trend, can clearly feel massive funds flowing in. I firmly believe that Dogecoin is the next coin that can reach a new high, very likely to hit 1 USD.
