Amidst the stormy waves of the cryptocurrency market, a storm capable of shaking the landscape is about to arrive. At 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the US April CPI data will be unveiled. This seemingly ordinary economic data is like the sword of Damocles hanging over Bitcoin, becoming a key variable in determining whether the big coin can continue to surge. The atmosphere in the crypto space is tense and restless, with everyone holding their breath in anticipation of this data feast.
Intense bull-bear competition: the main force's hidden maneuvers
Currently, the Bitcoin market resembles a drunken dancer, swaying back and forth in the range of $100,000 to $106,000. Faced with the fluctuation from $105,000 to just above $100,000 over the past two days, many investors have panicked. However, this is merely a 'harvesting script' meticulously orchestrated by the market leaders.
Through professional tools for in-depth tracking of data from three major exchanges—Coinbase, Binance, and OKX—an astonishing truth has surfaced: in the past three days, main funds have crazily cashed out $143 million at high positions, with single orders exceeding $3 million pouring into the market like raindrops. The already pressured market sell-off resembles a train station crowded during the Spring Festival, overflowing with people. Despite previous good news stimulating some big players to attempt to turn the tide, in the face of the overwhelming flood of sell orders, a short-term pullback has become inevitable.
Technical perspective: the offensive and defensive line constructed by key points
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's trend shows a subtle balance. On the daily chart, the price is steadily standing on the blue trend line, which is the last line of defense for the bulls; on the four-hour chart, the price is oscillating continuously in the range of $103,000 to $105,000, quickly retreating after peaking at $105,800 last night, forming a 'three consecutive bearish' pattern and breaking below the critical support level of $103,000.
However, the market is not without turning points. At $100,600, the dense accumulation of chips is like a solid wall. If this critical point is held, Bitcoin is highly likely to stage a counterattack, launching an assault on $106,600. The competition between bulls and bears at these key points will directly impact the short-term market direction.
CPI data decisive battle: market simulation under two scenarios
Tonight's main event—US April CPI data—is a 'nuclear bomb-level' message, directly influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace and reshaping the crypto landscape. If nothing unexpected happens, the market will play out the following two scenarios:
Scenario 1: Data is favorable, Bitcoin skyrockets
If the CPI data is below market expectations, interest rate cut expectations will soar like a rocket. Stimulated by this significant good news, Bitcoin is expected to instantly break through the $105,000 mark and even launch an assault on the $120,000 threshold. In the current context of institutions continuously increasing positions and ETF funds flowing in, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 is extremely low.
Scenario 2: Data rebounds, market faces temporary pressure
If the CPI data rebounds, the dollar will regain strength, and Bitcoin may be forced to dip into the $97,000 - $99,000 range to seek support. However, investors need not panic excessively; MicroStrategy holds $21 billion in additional funding and is ready to buy the dip; the firm belief of long-term holders will also provide strong support for the market. The worst-case scenario is merely continued oscillation and consolidation in the $90,000 - $110,000 range.
Market noise and future outlook: clearing the fog to see the truth
Recently, the 'troublemaker' Trump in American politics has once again stirred the market. Looking back at history, the positive news he releases often becomes the trigger for market declines. The tactics during the 2018 trade war have long been seen through by the market; now, the drama of 'good news turning into bad' is unfolding. Coupled with the inflation pressure brought by new tariffs in April, even if related policies are temporarily halted, the rise in commodity prices has already become a fact, casting a shadow over the CPI data.
The operations of investment master Buffett are equally thought-provoking. Berkshire Hathaway holds as much as $314 billion in short-term US Treasury bonds, with cash reserves reaching an astonishing $347.7 billion, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's own reserves. This move undoubtedly casts a 'vote of no confidence' on the prospects of the US economy.
Turning our attention to the altcoin market, Ethereum quickly retreated after surging to $2,600, showing signs of fatigue with two 'lightning rod' formations on the daily chart. The four-hour chart is struggling to support around $2,400, and if it falls below $2,280, it could trigger a chain reaction. Other altcoins are even more precarious, generally having a pullback space of 20% - 30%. However, amidst the crisis lies opportunity; this pullback is an excellent time for investors to position themselves, and they just need to wait for Ethereum to stabilize before entering.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's ceiling is firmly at $106,600, while the floor at $100,600 is an unbreakable shield. Main funds frequently perform high sell-low buy maneuvers within this range, and inexperienced retail investors who rashly enter are likely to become 'waiting to be harvested.' Monday's sharp drop was essentially the market's early digestion of the Federal Reserve's expectation not to cut interest rates in June (with a probability as high as 91.9%). Regardless of how tonight's CPI data turns out, it is merely the 'boot landing'; a crash-like plunge is nearly impossible.
In this uncertain market game, the $100,000 threshold for Bitcoin has been 'sealed,' and the $99,000 mark is an indestructible iron bottom. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut drama continues, and the story in the crypto space is far from over. For investors, maintaining calm and rational analysis is essential to share in the spoils of this feast. Let us witness the changing winds of the crypto space tonight and embrace the unknown challenges and opportunities!#CPI数据来袭 ##加密圆桌会议要点 ##贸易战缓和
