#CPI数据来袭

Data Expectations and Market Game:

The U.S. CPI data for April, to be released today at 20:30, is a key variable. If inflation is below expectations (previous value 2.4%), the expectation of interest rate cuts may drive Bitcoin to quickly rebound above $105,000 and challenge the $120,000 level; if the data exceeds expectations, a stronger dollar may lead BTC to test the support of $97,000-$99,000. Current market forecasts suggest that the CPI year-on-year may gently rise to 2.5%, but policy adjustments in tariffs could push up agricultural product prices, necessitating caution against unexpected upward risks in the data.

Changes in Sensitivity of the Crypto Market:

Recently, the correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks has risen to a high of 83%, with a significant capital diversion effect. Although the impact of CPI on crypto assets is gradually weakening (relying on trading volume and market sentiment), current market liquidity is relatively low; if the data does not exceed expectations, volatility may be limited, whereas the opposite may trigger a short-term long-short game. Historical cases show that in February 2025, CPI exceeding expectations led to a temporary 3% drop in BTC, but institutions increased their holdings at lower prices, forming support.

Operational Strategy:

From a technical perspective, if BTC holds the psychological level of $100,000, short-term rebound momentum remains; if it breaks below, it may test the support of $98,000-$99,000. It is recommended to pay attention to the volume breakout signals at the hourly level after the data release. If CPI is favorable, a light position can be taken to go long with a target of $105,000; if unfavorable, wait for a pullback to the support level to build positions in batches. Long-term investors may take the opportunity to position themselves, with a stop-loss reference below $96,500.

Summary: CPI data may become a catalyst for short-term market movements, but the long-term trend of the crypto market still depends on institutional funds (such as MicroStrategy's holdings) and the pace of macro policy implementation. Currently, it is advised to control leverage and closely monitor key level breakouts.