If nothing unexpected happens, ETH has likely peaked in the short term. This short term refers to this week. The reasons are as follows: the implied volatility (IV) on the put side is rising, while the overall IV is declining. The volatility risk premium (VRP) is already negative, proving that buying pressure has weakened, and IV is below realized volatility (RV). The changes in gamma exposure are minimal, but positive gamma resistance is strengthening. Therefore, I believe there won't be a significant drop, but upward momentum should also be insufficient.

From the fundamental perspective, the trade war has come to a pause, yet expectations for interest rate cuts have been compressed. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its interest rate cut forecast to December. The outlook is generally pessimistic.

The faith in Ethereum remains unchanged for the second half of the year, and the expectation to return to 4K remains unchanged. However, there may be no opportunities in May. It might be appropriate to extend profit positions to June. After all, there is speculation around interest rate cut expectations every month.

Additionally, the decline in gold has sounded an alarm for Bitcoin. Be cautious of pullbacks.

Buy more put ratios and set up zero-cost pullback insurance, as this is the right time. Wish everyone prosperity~