(May 13, 2025)
With the phased easing of the Sino-U.S. trade war, the global economic landscape is entering a new adjustment window. Against this backdrop, blockchain technology, as the core infrastructure of the digital economy, is leaping from being a 'tool to cope with trade barriers' to an 'engine for reconstructing the global value chain'. This article explores the transformative potential of blockchain technology in international trade, financial systems, and governance models in light of the new situation of trade war easing.
I. The Easing of the Trade War Releases Space for Blockchain Technology Applications
The easing of the trade war has provided a more stable policy environment for the scaled application of blockchain technology. Previously, the competition between China and the U.S. in the blockchain field focused on cross-border payments and monetary sovereignty (such as the competition between China's DCEP and Libra), while the easing period has prompted both sides to shift from confrontation to cooperative exploration. For example, companies like Ping An and Ant Financial have joined the R3 alliance to promote standardized practices of blockchain in cross-border settlement, while logistics blockchain projects involving companies like IBM, Amazon, and Huawei have verified the feasibility of technological neutrality in multinational scenarios.
According to data, in 2024, the market size of China's blockchain cross-border trade has reached 69.77 billion yuan, and it is expected to exceed 240 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of over 25%. This growth is not only due to technological maturity but also stems from the digitalization demand of the global supply chain forced by trade frictions.
II. Blockchain Technology Empowers the Upgrade of the Global Trade System
1. Cross-border Payments: Reshaping International Financial Infrastructure
During the trade war, the SWIFT system led by the U.S. was used as a sanction tool, prompting countries like China, Russia, and India to accelerate the development of blockchain-based alternatives. The implementation of China's DCEP has detached transactions from account dependencies and enabled real-time data collection, opening new paths for the internationalization of the renminbi. Currently, Tianjin Customs' 'TBC Blockchain Cross-Border Trade Express' has automatically verified 15 types of documents through smart contracts, improving customs clearance efficiency by 40%.
2. Supply Chain Management: Building a Trusted Data Network
The combination of blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT) is addressing the problem of information islands in traditional trade. For example, the smart logistics platform developed by Huawei and IBM can trace the entire process data of products from production to consumption. This transparency not only reduces the risk of trade fraud (such as in food traceability scenarios) but also optimizes cross-border insurance pricing models through immutable logistics records.
3. Financial Innovation: Solving the Financing Dilemma of Small and Medium Enterprises
Blockchain-based supply chain finance platforms digitize assets such as accounts receivable and warehouse receipts, reducing financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises by over 30%. The 'Chain-on-Exchange' product from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has provided real-time credit services to over 5,000 foreign trade enterprises, improving fund turnover efficiency by 50%.
III. Dual Challenges of Policy Coordination and Technological Governance
Although the easing of the trade war has reduced geopolitical risks, the global promotion of blockchain technology still faces two core issues:
1. Compatibility of Legal Frameworks: Legislative differences among countries on issues like the validity of smart contracts and data sovereignty may create new technological barriers. For instance, the conflict between the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and blockchain's anonymity requires the use of technologies like zero-knowledge proofs to balance privacy and compliance.
2. Reconstruction of Governance Mechanisms: The vision of 'Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs)' proposed in WTO reports calls for establishing transnational collaborative technological standards. China has already clarified its autonomous and controllable path for the underlying blockchain architecture in the Cryptography Law and the '14th Five-Year Plan' for digital economy, but how to align with the Western-led alliance chain systems (like Hyperledger) still needs exploration.
IV. Future Outlook: From Technological Tools to Rule Makers
The easing of the trade war is not the end, but the starting point for the reconstruction of the global value chain. Three major trends in blockchain technology are worth noting:
1. Multi-chain Integration: Cross-chain technology will connect on-chain ecosystems in vertical fields such as trade, finance, and logistics, forming a 'blockchain internet';
2. Regulatory Technology (RegTech): The People's Bank of China is piloting a 'regulatory sandbox' to prevent abnormal capital flows through real-time data analysis, balancing innovation and risk;
3. Carbon Footprint Tracking: A carbon emissions measurement system combined with blockchain may become key to breaking through the barriers of the EU and U.S. 'carbon border tax'.
Conclusion
The easing of the trade war provides a strategic buffer period for blockchain technology, but its ultimate value lies in reconstructing a new global trade order based on trust and efficiency. China's DCEP practices, the construction of cross-border blockchain platforms, and innovative policy experiences are laying the foundation for the competition for rule-making power in the 'post-trade war era'. In the future, whoever can achieve a breakthrough in the synergy between technological application and governance systems will dominate the landscape of globalization 2.0.
