The current market still maintains a high correlation with the US stock market. It is noteworthy that during the US stock market's trading halt, the cryptocurrency market often falls into a liquidity vacuum, a phenomenon that is particularly evident during the traditional off-season in May. Major funds are clearly maintaining high price fluctuations to prevent the emergence of obvious arbitrage windows.
Looking back at the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2024, a significant pattern can be observed: from September 7 to 18, before the first interest rate cut, Bitcoin started a major upward trend from $54,000, breaking through the $66,000 mark in just ten days; three days before the November interest rate meeting, market reactions pushed the price from $67,000 to $93,000; by the time of the third interest rate cut in December, Bitcoin successfully broke through the six-figure mark, forming a historic breakthrough.
The current market focus has shifted to the quarterly inflation data to be disclosed at 20:30 Beijing time. As a core indicator of inflation, the quarterly CPI data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's choice of monetary policy path. If the data meets expectations and declines, it may trigger a new round of liquidity expectations, injecting upward momentum into the digital asset market. Investors are advised to closely monitor key support levels and seize potential structural opportunities.
Operating Suggestions
Long positions around 102300-102500 for Bitcoin, targeting 104500
Long positions around 2480 for Ethereum, targeting 2580
