Based on the search results, here's a detailed analysis of the current market situation under Trump's second term and whether his bullish prediction holds merit:
### Market Context Under Trump's Second Term
1. **Recent Volatility and Crash**
- Global markets experienced a significant crash from April 2–10, 2025, triggered by Trump's sweeping tariffs (up to 245% on China) under the "Liberation Day" policy. This led to the worst two-day loss in history ($6.6 trillion wiped out) and near-bear market conditions .
- The S&P 500 dropped 8% in Trump's first 100 days—the worst presidential start since Nixon in 1973 . Tariffs caused stagflation fears, bond market turmoil, and a flight to gold (which hit a record $3,400/oz) .
2. **Partial Recovery**
- Markets rebounded sharply on April 9 after Trump paused non-China tariffs for 90 days (S&P 500 surged 9%, Nasdaq jumped 15%). However, gains were uneven, and pre-crash levels weren’t restored .
- A rare *Zweig Breadth Thrust* (ZBT) signal flashed in late April—a historically bullish indicator with a 100% accuracy rate since 1957, suggesting potential 24% gains in 12 months .
### Trump's "Rocket Ship" Claim: Factors to Consider
- **Bullish Indicators**:
- The ZBT signal and recent rallies (e.g., S&P 500’s 10% gain over nine sessions) hint at momentum .
- Some analysts argue investor euphoria has been "washed out," creating buying opportunities .
- **Bearish Risks**:
- **Tariff Uncertainty**: Even with the 90-day pause, effective tariff rates could settle at 10–20%, the highest since the 1940s, weighing on growth .
- **Stagflation Threat**: Simultaneous inflation (PCE forecast at 3.2% for 2026) and weak GDP (Q1 2025 estimate: -2.8%) risk squeezing profits .
- **Debt Concerns**: U.S. debt levels may double interest costs to $2 trillion/year, pressuring markets .