Impact Forecast of China-U.S. Trade Negotiation Progress on Global Markets and Trade Policies**

#### **1. Impact on Global Markets**

- **Short-term Optimism**: If the joint statement on May 12 sends clear signals of reconciliation (such as tariff reductions and relaxed technology export restrictions), global risk assets (U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Renminbi, commodities) may experience a rebound.

- **Benefiting Sectors**: Technology (semiconductors, consumer electronics), shipping, new energy (electric vehicles, photovoltaics), and commodities (copper, crude oil) may lead the gains, as China and the U.S. are the largest demand sources globally.

- **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: If the U.S. reduces tariff threats against China, the CNY may appreciate to below 7.0, alleviating capital outflow pressures.

- **Long-term Uncertainty**: Even if a new consultation mechanism is established, the U.S. “small courtyard high wall” technology blockade against China (such as AI chips, quantum computing) is difficult to reverse, and the market may maintain structural differentiation.

#### **2. Potential Impact on Global Trade Policies**

- **Acceleration of WTO Reform**: If China and the U.S. coordinate their positions (such as subsidy rules, dispute resolution mechanisms), it may promote the long-stalled reform of the multilateral trading system, benefiting emerging markets.

- **Slowdown of Supply Chain Restructuring**: If tariff barriers are lowered, the urgency for companies to engage in “friend-shoring” (such as Apple's supply chain moving to India) will decrease, but the “China +1” strategy will still continue. 81618962262