#贸易战缓和

🔥 【#贸易战缓和 Crypto Market Big Boost? $BTC/USDT May Welcome an Explosive Window】

Macro positive impact:

China and the US have paused the imposition of new tariffs, and global risk assets have responded with an uptick, with Bitcoin breaking through the $97,000 mark, a 24-hour increase of 5%. The easing of the trade war reduces market demand for safe-haven assets, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.8%, with funds accelerating into cryptocurrencies and other high-risk assets.

Three core driving forces

1️⃣ Liquidity release:

- The decline in tariff costs alleviates inflationary pressure, and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising (September probability increased to 68%), historical data shows that during interest rate cut cycles, BTC has an average increase of 217%.

- Improvement in corporate cash flow, institutions like MicroStrategy may increase their BTC allocations.

2️⃣ Recovery in cross-border payments:

- The recovery in international trade drives demand for USDT/USDC settlements, with the on-chain transfer volume of stablecoins surging by 40% in a single day, and the overflow effect is beneficial for BTC.

- Chinese importers are using cryptocurrencies to circumvent foreign exchange controls, with OTC premiums rising to 1.5%.

3️⃣ Technical resonance:

- BTC's weekly chart breaks through the upper boundary of the "symmetrical triangle", targeting $105,000, RSI (65) is not overbought, leaving ample room for growth.

- Miner selling pressure has dropped to a new low since the halving (daily selling volume of 900 BTC), further tightening supply.

Risk warning

⚠️ If the details of the trade agreement do not meet expectations, or if geopolitical conflicts arise again, BTC may test the $90,000 support.

When "globalization warms up" meets the "halving cycle", will $BTC initiate a "frenzied bull market"?

#BitcoinMacroDividend #CryptoMarketRecovery #贸易战缓和