$BTC $ETH #贸易战缓和 A Brief Respite in Strategic Game

After five years, the US-China trade war shows signs of easing, with a gradual rollback of tariff rates and an expansion of the exclusion list for certain goods. This superficial easing should not be simply interpreted as the end of confrontation but rather as a strategic buffer entering a new phase of great power competition.

The direct cost of trade confrontation serves as an economic incentive for both sides to choose a ceasefire. Over 90% of the tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods are borne by American importers, raising their inflation pressure by 1.5 percentage points. China's share of exports to the US dropped from 21% to 16%, significantly increasing the pressure for industrial chain relocation. This win-lose pattern forces both sides to temporarily hold back in key areas such as electric vehicles and photovoltaic components, while the intensity of confrontation in strategic industries like semiconductors is on the rise.

Technical compromises cannot obscure structural confrontation. The US's restrictions on technology investment in China quietly came into effect during trade negotiations, while China's list of controlled rare earth processing technologies was updated simultaneously. This “negotiating while fighting” situation confirms Clausewitz's assertion that “war is a continuation of politics,” as trade friction has evolved into an external manifestation of institutional competition. The race for positioning in future industries such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing continues to accelerate.

A hedging reconstruction of global industrial chains is taking shape. Mexico's exports to the US surged by 40%, with two-thirds of the increase coming from the transfer of capacity from Chinese enterprises. The EU's carbon border tax and Southeast Asia's digital tax have been implemented successively, with regional trade agreements covering 58% of global trade volume. This “decentralization” trend forces the US and China to maintain necessary contact in traditional trade areas, buying time to build their respective new economic circles.

Historical experience shows that the adaptation between established powers and rising forces requires a cycle of half a century. The current easing is akin to the “armed peace” on the eve of 1914, with undercurrents of technological revolution and order change surging beneath the surface. As 5G networks reconstruct global production functions and digital currencies shake the foundations of dollar hegemony, the real test is just beginning. The trade war has never been an end in itself but rather a rehearsal for great powers to reshape global economic governance rights.