Bitcoin has surged to within spitting distance of its record $108,000 price, but market watchers bet that reaching the all-time high will just be the start.
Traders, analysts, and Polymarket punters suggest the leading cryptocurrency will climb as high as $200,000 this year.
“The bull case for Bitcoin has never been stronger,” tweeted David Marcus, a former Meta and PayPal executive. “Banks can now custody and offer it to their customers, and sovereign states and corporations are competing to buy. Buckle up.”
That’s a dramatic turnaround from just a month ago when Bitcoin traded near long-term lows around $75,000.
The marked shift comes on the back of news that the US and China have inched closer to ending their trade war, and renewed institutional interest in the sector.
Short-term bull case
Will Bitcoin break its old record this quarter? Standard Chartered’s top crypto researcher says so.
“My $120,000 second-quarter target may be too low,” Geoffrey Kendrick, the UK bank’s head of digital assets research, wrote in a research note earlier in May.
His argument is that investors have topped up their portfolios with Bitcoin to diversify away from US assets in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
Polymarket punters back the case, betting that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high as early as the end of May.
The majority of wagers are clustered between $90,000 and $115,000, with the $110,000 level attracting the most interest as a potential peak for May.
More long-term, both Kendrick and Maelstrom CEO Arthur Hayes are among those who argue that Bitcoin will likely hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Trade war thaw
The easing tension between the US and China has also fuelled Bitcoin bullishness.
Both nations have agreed to a 90-day pause on new trade measures and will reduce reciprocal tariffs to a 10% baseline rate, down from levels of over 100%.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the previous high tariffs as “the equivalent of an embargo” and emphasised that “neither side wants that. We want trade.”
The agreement has alleviated fears of a global recession, with markets responding positively.
US stock futures surged, the dollar strengthened, and investor sentiment improved, creating a more favourable environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
“Buy everything! Chi-Merica lives!” tweeted Hayes.
Liquidity surge and institutional adoption
Beyond geopolitical developments, a wave of liquidity driven by monetary policy shifts, particularly in China, has contributed to Bitcoin’s rebound.
The People’s Bank of China recently cut its reserve requirement ratio and lowered key short-term interest rates, injecting approximately $1 trillion into the financial system.
This liquidity surge has acted as a "dollar wrecking ball in reverse," weakening the dollar and providing cover for other central banks to ease monetary policy without risking capital flight, according to the analysts from the London Crypto Club.
“We are set to see new record highs across the board over the coming weeks and months,” they wrote.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has also returned.
Companies like Strategy have been steadily gobbling up Bitcoin, and analysts at VanEck highlighted Bitcoin’s growing role in international trade, noting its use by countries like Russia and Venezuela to circumvent sanctions and hedge against dollar risk.
BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick also emphasised Bitcoin’s potential as a critical portfolio asset for institutions and highlighted its value as a hedge against downside risk events.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is even on the day, trading at a price of $104,500.
Ethereum has gained 2% in the past 24 hours and is trading at $2,560.
What we’re reading
Coinbase CEO spills on why the exchange didn’t bet the farm on Bitcoin ― DL News
Tether in the Clear? Yes, Under This New Republican-Led Senate Stablecoin Bill ― Unchained
What you missed this week ― Milk Road
BlackRock beefs up quantum computing threat warnings to Bitcoin investors ― DL News
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at [email protected].
