This week's important data:
Tuesday: US April CPI data;
On Friday, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the US for May.
It seems the negotiations are going smoothly, and the market can rise with confidence.
Over the weekend, there was no significant market action; Bitcoin fluctuated slightly around $104,000. I didn't expect Ethereum to perform brilliantly, with trading volume surpassing Bitcoin for three consecutive days, and the price surged directly to $2,608 yesterday. More surprisingly, last night Ethereum hit the top of Douyin's trending topics. Whether it's official accounts or personal bloggers, they are all posting about its rise, making it the focus of attention online.
Someone even asked Douyin's official account, confirming that this trending topic was not bought; it was genuine traffic.
Even though it was later removed, this popularity indicates one thing: the attention on Ethereum in the domestic market is indeed high.
Ethereum suddenly became popular; some say it's due to large funds manipulating the market, wanting to raise prices and then cash out. But data shows that this claim is not very credible.
First, look at ETF holdings. Globally, all Ethereum ETFs combined only hold 3.45 million coins, accounting for only 2.86% of Ethereum's total supply. Moreover, over 99% of these coins are in the hands of US institutions, with very little in Hong Kong, so this amount can't stir up a big wave.
Looking at the staking situation now, there are 34.19 million Ethereum locked in staking, accounting for nearly 30% of the total supply. Even if the coin price drops sharply, the amount staked has not only not decreased but is slowly increasing. About half of the staking costs less than $1,500, and these people are in no hurry to sell. Additionally, 23 million coins are locked in smart contracts and cannot be moved. In total, over half of Ethereum cannot be freely traded.
Another key piece of data: over the past week, the Ethereum spot ETF has actually decreased by 32,000 coins. If someone really wanted to raise the price to sell, how could this be the case? Therefore, saying 'changing the market maker to pull up prices' is likely an overthought.
Why did Ethereum suddenly surge? Positive news is the real driving force.
The recent rise in Ethereum is genuinely not due to someone secretly manipulating it; it is mainly because there is good news. The biggest positive factor is this 'Ethereum Staking ETF' matter. BlackRock recently met with the new chairman of the US SEC, and it is said they discussed Ethereum ETFs and staking. Now, it is rumored that the Ethereum spot ETF with staking capabilities may soon be approved.
Once this news came out, many institutions and market makers couldn't sit still and quickly started hoarding coins, waiting for the price to rise. The exchange data also speaks volumes: last August, Ethereum fell from $4,000 to $2,500, and the amount of Ethereum on exchanges surged as people felt the market was unfavorable and rushed to sell. This time is completely different, as there is hope.
Since the price hit $1,600, the market has changed. Although the price is rising, the amount of ETH on exchanges is decreasing.
This is very similar to BTC's previous trend, indicating that someone is quietly buying, and the key is that they don't intend to sell in the short term.
The recent price increase of Ethereum is not just due to favorable news, but also three important reasons. First, while the Pectra upgrade has brought some changes, such as layer two networks taking traffic away from the mainnet, gas fees becoming cheaper, and the ability to pay fees with other tokens, along with increased staking limits, some are worried this will reduce Ethereum's demand. However, looking long-term, a faster network that is easier to use will attract more users, making the ecosystem more vibrant and potentially more developed.
Secondly, real-world assets on the blockchain (RWA) represent a huge opportunity. Big companies like BlackRock and Fidelity have already started building platforms on Ethereum, and in the future, assets like houses and bonds will be traded on the chain. Once this trend takes shape, it will be a long-term boon for Ethereum. The market is optimistic about this, which is why they are willing to buy.
Thirdly, funds are seeking new directions. Recently, the Russell 2000 small-cap index in US stocks has been moving similarly to Ethereum, both rising. This indicates that funds are beginning to shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other tokens. Similar situations also occurred at the end of 2024, so this Ethereum rise is likely due to funds looking for new investment opportunities.
Bitcoin trading wasn't very active over the weekend, but thanks to the rise on Friday, the price is slowly climbing. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's current rise seems to be losing momentum, and it is expected to drop in the short term, first testing the price level of $102,500. If it can't hold this price, it may continue to drop to $100,800.
The market has reached a critical point, and whether it rises or falls, there are many contracts betting on it, which actually provides liquidity to the market. If the bulls are strong enough, Bitcoin may consolidate between $103,000 and $105,000 for a while before continuing to rise, possibly even reaching $110,000. However, such rapid surges usually last only 1 to 2 days, and waiting to buy after the price rises will increase costs.
These three coins on Binance are just waiting for ACT to take off.
On Binance, NEIRO, PNUT, and ACT are all there, but only ACT hasn't surged significantly yet. This coin is quite frustrating; it has been repeatedly pushed down after reaching $0.085. We got PNUT at $0.2, and ACT between $0.05 and $0.06, mainly entering at the lowest price points. PNUT has already risen well; it's just a matter of whether ACT can also rise, not asking for a huge surge, but at least don't lag behind.
Don't be intimidated by the sharp drop in AI coins! This is the real potential stock.
Recently, AI coins have been falling sharply, but I still believe they are the 'main line for making money' in the future. Whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, AI will not cool down unless a new hot concept emerges. Now OpenAI is negotiating funding with Microsoft, and WLFI has also stated it wants to 'wrestle' with Ethereum. These signals indicate that AI may take over from Meme coins and become the next blockbuster.
Take the weekend market as an example; MOODENG (Hippo Coin) rose tenfold in five days, and GOAT and PNUT also skyrocketed. Many people are still hesitating whether to buy, only to watch others make money. This is how the cryptocurrency market operates; when it drops, people want to give up, but when it rises, they regret not getting in. Now Meme coins have risen too high, chasing them can easily lead to losses; it’s better to refocus on AI concept coins and find those with stable development and coherent stories.
Old players should remember the DeFi craze, right? Many popular coins fell for one or two months back then, but ended up rising the most. In 2023, ordi fell for half a year, and everyone thought there was no hope for a bull market, but what happened later? So this drop in AI coins might just be a 'squat' before a big rise.
I have always advised everyone not to touch contracts and leverage. If you don't listen to the advice, the losses are yours to bear. In the cryptocurrency market, making money is not much about technical analysis; the key is to identify the direction and stick to it. Don't panic at the first sign of a drop; blaming external factors won't solve problems. Stay calm to wait for opportunities.
Moreover, the meme leaders I previously recommended can at least start with a fivefold increase, as this market has been brewing for a year and a half, and it's just beginning.
Meme leaders: pnut as the top, neiro as the second, moodeng as the dark horse, and bome I personally favor.
Also, pepe as the old meme leader is also very strong.
AI leaders: virtual as the top, aixbt as the second, goat as the third, and wld as the old top.
ETH ecosystem: ethfi eigen saga io
If you don't know what to buy, use this list for allocation. After a wave of market growth, the next step will be a strong horizontal consolidation. At this stage, you can start building your position gradually.
Moreover, the meme section on Binance has basically surged, so pay attention to these four.
$TST
$BANANAS31
$BROCCOLI714
$TUT is a key focus. It has a burning mechanism.
Recommendation reason: small market cap, fully circulating. Currently, there has been no significant surge.
VIRTUAL and AIXBTR just pulled up another 10%+, while wld and pnut started moving yesterday, and now my account is rising every day.
Today, looking at the gainers list, it's all Meme coins rising! PNUT and neiro lead the charge, with tut, bome, and ordi also rising. Many popular coins are now swaying at high positions, and occasionally drop a bit, especially PNUT and neiro. This situation clearly indicates that the market makers are hoarding coins like crazy, definitely waiting for bigger positive news.
Recently, regarding these few coins, MOODENG, GOAT on Binance Alpha, and PNUT, everyone can see the opportunity. I personally took a big loss; I saw PNUT trending steadily yesterday and thought I’d take a break over the weekend and check again on Monday, only to find it surged 30% in the blink of an eye. I regretted it immensely!
Now I have decided to keep a close eye on the market and not relax over the weekend. If the market continues to perform well over the next month, I could earn what others make in several years. If you discover a coin with a good trend but are hesitant to hold it, feel free to reach out to me! This time, we must seize the opportunity and make up for all the losses we've missed out on!
