Bitcoin $BTC maintained its position near the $104,000 mark on Monday, consolidating around a three-month high as global markets reacted to the latest developments in US-China trade negotiations. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was largely unchanged at $103,863 by early morning trading, following a week of heightened volatility and optimism driven by diplomatic progress between Washington and Beijing237.
Trade Talks Fuel Optimism, But Markets Await Details
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price-up over 9% last week-was initially sparked by the U.S. surpassing the $100,000 threshold for the first time since late January 2025. The rally gained further momentum after the U.S. and China announced over the weekend that they had reached a preliminary trade agreement following high-level talks in Geneva235. While the specific terms of the deal have yet to be disclosed, both sides described the negotiations as “substantial” and achieving “important consensus,” providing enough optimism to buoy risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
According to market analysts, the agreement includes a temporary reduction in tariffs: the U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period, while China will reciprocate by reducing tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This development marks a significant de-escalation in the trade war that had threatened to inject inflationary pressures into the global economy.
Bitcoin’s Technical Picture and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin’s current consolidation around $104,000 is viewed by technical analysts as a potential springboard for further gains. The cryptocurrency has fluctuated between $103,364 and $105,039 in the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of $46.7 billion and a market capitalization of $2.07 trillion-its highest since February 2025. Experts suggest that if Bitcoin can maintain its momentum and break above the $105,000 resistance level, it could rally toward new all-time highs, possibly targeting $115,600 in the near term.
Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by hopes that the US-China trade deal will bring stability to global markets and encourage further capital inflows into alternative assets like Bitcoin. However, traders are exercising caution as they await concrete details of the agreement, which could determine whether the recent rally is sustainable.
Looking Ahead: Inflation Data and Institutional Flows
Investors are also closely watching upcoming U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and, by extension, risk asset performance. Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and stable implied volatility further suggest that institutional interest in the cryptocurrency remains robust5.
In summary, Bitcoin’s price action near $104,000 reflects cautious optimism as markets await full details of the US-China trade deal. A decisive announcement could set the stage for further gains, while any disappointment or delay may test the market’s resolve
