On the macro front, the UK-US trade framework has basically landed, and the China-US sides have also concluded their two-day negotiations. Just now, the Ministry of Commerce has confirmed the success of the negotiations, and the subsequent tariffs will no longer be 125%, returning to normal levels. Major positive news! Bitcoin has directly crossed the 105,000 mark, and Ethereum has broken through 2600.
On May 9, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 321 million dollars, and Ethereum saw an inflow of 17.6 million. Last week, BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone saw an inflow of 1 billion dollars. I actually can’t quite understand why there’s so much off-exchange capital inflow at this stage; it’s likely related to the expectations of various state reserve bill approvals.
ETH has risen 40% in three days and has already topped the domestic social media hot search list. To be honest, this should be considered somewhat out of the loop. According to the theory of 'out of the loop means extinction,' Ethereum should eliminate some long positions in the next few days; letting the long positions feel too comfortable is not good.
Too many messages not to say, today's market mainly comes from the signing of the China-US trade agreement.
Market interpretation
Bitcoin has crossed the 105,000 mark, just 4% away from the historical high of 110,000. I think it's still difficult to hit a new high directly, but a new high should appear. Do you remember what happened when Bitcoin broke through 69,000? It was a slaughter of the longs! If it reaches that position, there should be a spike in price.
Ethereum has broken through 2600, but the exchange rate still hasn’t returned to 0.025. This exchange rate should be achievable, but after reaching this rate, it may take a breather. There's no financial market that can keep rising or falling indefinitely, especially for Ethereum worth 300 billion dollars; at this position, avoid FOMO.
But it’s very likely that it hasn’t finished yet; seeing 2800 or even 3000 is possible.
Regarding altcoins:
Last week we captured a lot of new coins' price increases because the logic still relies on contracts, and the trading volume of spot has indeed not seen significant growth. Therefore, I believe this wave of altcoin rises lacks independence and long-lasting sustainability, especially when Bitcoin and Ethereum experience a pullback, these altcoins won't escape either. This time, the main force for the rise remains MEME coins and newly listed coins. MOODENG has risen tenfold from the bottom, but it has also dropped 95% from the peak. This time, pure MEME coins are rising faster than AI agents, and most of them are MEME coins listed on exchanges, so we should look for targets more on CEX in the future. Don’t play long-term holding with altcoins anymore; cash out when you can in the short term.
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