1. Market Observation
Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC
Global financial markets are undergoing positive changes. Both China and the United States reached an important consensus during talks held in Geneva, Switzerland over the weekend. Both sides agreed to establish a trade negotiation mechanism to lay the groundwork for resolving differences. Trump praised the negotiations on social media, stating that they have made 'great progress.' His Treasury Secretary Becerra and Trade Representative Greer also indicated that more details will be shared today. Additionally, the US will announce April CPI data on May 13. Previously, March CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking a nearly five-year low, and core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, the lowest level in four years. However, analysts expect that this easing of inflationary pressures may be difficult to sustain, especially after the Trump administration implements a comprehensive tariff policy. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that this may be the calm before the inflation storm. Observers noted that the US government's tariff measures may raise inflation levels in the coming months, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The market is closely watching the upcoming CPI data to assess the specific impact of tariff transmission effects on the US economy.
Ethereum is replacing Bitcoin as the leader of the recent cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's price remained almost unchanged over the weekend compared to Friday, with no significant fluctuations. The market anticipates that today's US stock market opening and the outcome of US-China negotiations will influence Bitcoin's direction. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that market data shows current liquidity is mainly concentrated around 104,000 USD, and 106,000 USD has become the next key resistance level. However, some traders are cautious about short-term trends, fearing a potential 'false breakout' that could lead to a decline back to 102,000 USD or lower. Ethereum has performed particularly well after the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade, breaking through 2,600 USD over the weekend, with a weekly increase of nearly 40%, driving a recovery in the entire crypto ecosystem. The market has begun to anticipate the next major upgrade, Fusaka, before the end of the year. Although some institutions have recently started purchasing Ethereum and Bitcoin, such as Abraxas Capital, which withdrew 185,309 Ethereum from Binance in three days (currently valued at approximately 470 million USD), this portion of ETH has been deposited into Aave and Compound. This institution had also purchased over 250 million USD in Bitcoin in mid-April. However, it is noteworthy that several whales and smart money have started to short and sell BTC, ETH, and SOL today.
The altcoin market has recently shown signs of recovery, with a slight pullback today. DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev revealed last Friday that they are actively purchasing various small cryptocurrencies, considering establishing strategic reserves. However, analysts have differing views on the sustainability of this trend. Among them, 2Lambroz believes that the altcoin season may have already arrived, but the market lacks strong narratives, and retail participation is not evident. Meanwhile, technical analysts point out that the current market structure is similar to 2016 and 2020, suggesting that small coins may experience explosive growth after an accumulation phase. Over the weekend, two popular meme coins also emerged: one is the $USELESS token, which emphasizes 'uselessness,' supported by the creator of Bonk; the other is the new character Mouse Frog $RATO created by the father of Pepe. The MOODENG and GOAT launched on Binance Alpha have also performed exceptionally well, with MOODENG rising from 0.0396 USD to 0.294 USD (up 642%) since May 8, and GOAT rising from 0.07 USD to 0.2428 USD (up 247%). Additionally, the TRUMP dinner leaderboard will close at 1:30 AM on May 13, at which time the top 220 dinner qualifications will be determined. Some traders are betting on TRUMP's future performance, and a new wallet withdrew 7.6 million USD TRUMP from Binance and OKX today.
2. Key Data (as of May 12, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: 104,008 USD (year-to-date +11.2%), daily spot trading volume 27.02 billion USD
Ethereum: 2,517.00 USD (year-to-date -24.26%), daily spot trading volume 23.22 billion USD
Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC 1. sat/vB, ETH 1.02 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 61.8%, ETH 9.1%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, DOGE, BTC, MOVE, PUNDIX
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0342
Sector Performance: Meme sector up 3.52%, AI sector up 1.28%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 136,060 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 337 million USD, including 42.58 million USD in BTC liquidations, 104 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 22.64 million USD in MOODENG liquidations.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper channel line (100,217.67 USD), lower channel line (98,233.16 USD)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper channel line (2,151.34 USD), lower channel line (2,108.74 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or frequently fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of May 9)
Bitcoin ETF: +321.46 million USD
Ethereum ETF: +17.61 million USD (net outflow for three consecutive days)
4. Today's Forecast
US SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will deliver a keynote speech on asset tokenization on the 12th.
The SEC plans to hold the fourth cryptocurrency roundtable meeting, with executives from BlackRock, Fidelity, Nasdaq, and others in attendance.
sns.sol will conduct an SNS token airdrop on May 13, and users will have 90 days to claim their token allocation.
Binance will launch an Alpha point consumption mechanism on May 13. If users successfully participate in TGE or receive an airdrop, the system will deduct a certain amount of Alpha points.
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 2:00 AM on May 13, which is 1.82% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 67.5 million USD.
US April unadjusted CPI year-on-year (May 13, 20:30)
Actual: To be announced / Previous: 2.4% / Expected: 2.4%
US April seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month (May 13, 20:30)
Actual: To be announced / Previous: -0.1% / Expected: 0.3%
Today's top 500 market cap increases: MOODENG up 118.78%, GOAT up 56.18%, CHILLGUY up 54.54%, FWOG up 52.13%, TOSHI up 37.56%.
5. Hot News
Data: Tokens such as APT, ARB, AVAX are about to experience large unlocks, with APT unlocking valued at approximately 67.5 million USD.
This Week's Forecast | US April CPI data will be unveiled; VanEck plans to launch a new crypto-related ETF
This Week's Macro Outlook: CPI data may trigger stagflation trading script, BTC may face a test of 100,000 USD support.
FTX/Alameda address unstaked 187,625 SOL 8 hours ago, worth approximately 32.24 million USD.
Another whale opened a short position worth 44 million USD BTC with 40x leverage, with a liquidation price of 112,660 USD.
Irish presidential candidate Conor McGregor will meet with the president of El Salvador to discuss strategic Bitcoin reserves.
A certain whale deposited 5 million USDC into Hyperliquid again, with 5x leverage shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Crypto KOL Patricio Worthalter sold 2,000 ETH for 5.01 million USDC.
"Hyperliquid 50x whale" opened a high-leverage short on BTC again after 35 days.
A certain new wallet withdrew TRUMP worth 7.6 million USD from Binance and OKX.
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 20 consecutive days, setting the longest inflow record of the year, with Goldman Sachs' IBIT holdings increasing by 28% in Q1.
Canadian tech company Matador plans to raise 3 million CAD, with a portion of net proceeds intended for increasing Bitcoin holdings.
Guotai Junan International lays out a tokenized securities business.
"What happened to Ethereum's 40% surge in 3 days" topic topped Douyin hot list.
Ethereum's market cap surpasses Coca-Cola, rising to 40th place in global asset market cap rankings.
Binance Alpha launches MOODENG and GOAT.
ether.fi foundation: This week has repurchased 437,000 ETHFI, costing 137 ETH.
DWF Labs partner: Actively buying various altcoins, considering establishing strategic reserves.
