Part One: Bitcoin Miners' Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 - Is the Market Gearing Up for New Highs?
1. Shift in Miner Behavior: From Selling to Holding
According to the latest data from cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner selling pressure index (measuring the ratio of miner outflows in 30 days to reserve levels) has fallen below the lower bound, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the past model of 'selling to cover operating costs' to strategic hoarding.
This sharply contrasts with the dilemma of miners' income halving after the 2024 halving (when daily selling by miners increased from 900 to 1200 coins), but the changes in the current market environment prompt miners to adjust their strategies:
Profit Expectations Drive Hoarding: As Bitcoin's price recently broke $100,000 and approached historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin for higher returns rather than cashing out in the short term.
Structural Optimization in the Industry: The large-scale development led by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) has reduced the exit risk of inefficient miners, and the increased industry concentration alleviates selling pressure.
Lessons from Historical Experiences: In past cycles, excessive leverage and long-term holding by miners led to liquidity crises (such as the 2018 bear market), and there is now a greater focus on short-term financial stability.
2. On-chain Data Revealing Market Resilience
Alphractal's miner selling pressure index shows that the current market structure is distinctly different from the 'panic selling' at the beginning of 2024:
Long-term Holders Dominate: Currently, over 80% of Bitcoin is held for more than 6 months, significantly lower than the dominance of short-term holders at historical cycle peaks, providing price stability.
Exchange Reserves at New Lows: Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating that the market is in a 'high-speed accumulation phase', with selling pressure dispersed by over-the-counter trading or institutional holdings.
Derivatives Market Risks: Despite stability in the spot market, there are a large number of highly leveraged long positions in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, and price fluctuations could trigger a multi-billion dollar liquidation wave.
3. Price Trends and Future Expectations
As of May 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin is reported at $104,250, with a 1% increase over 24 hours and a cumulative increase of over 30% in the past month. The focal point of market divergence regarding future trends is:
Technical Signals: RSI (75) indicates overbought conditions, but MACD continues to rise; a critical support level of $10,000, if breached, may trigger selling from short-term holders.
Influence of Macroeconomic Variables: Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts (if cuts exceed 100 basis points in 2025) may provide Bitcoin with a 'Davis Double' opportunity, but stagflation risks could undermine its safe haven attributes.
Dynamics of Miner Behavior: If the price breaks through $110,000, miner selling pressure may rise; however, the current low selling level suggests the market may enter a 'calm rising phase'.
Part Two: Market Concerns Behind the 'Substantial Progress' of the China-US Trade Agreement
1. White House Statements and Agreement Outline
On May 11, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet and Trade Representative Jamison Greer jointly announced that substantial progress had been made in US-China trade negotiations, with both sides reaching a principled consensus in the following areas:
Market Access: China has committed to expanding imports of US agricultural products, and the tariff exemptions for certain US technology products have been extended.
Intellectual Property Protection: Establishing cross-border law enforcement cooperation mechanisms to reduce barriers to technology transfer.
Dispute Resolution Mechanism: Establishing a permanent consultation platform to prevent trade frictions from escalating.
2. Market Reactions and Concerns
Despite positive signals from officials, the lack of agreement details leads to cautious optimism from investors:
Residual Uncertainty: The volatility of Trump Administration policies (such as the 'one-day' exemption of electronic tariffs in 2024) undermines market trust, and risk assets remain under pressure before the agreement is finalized.
Structural Contradictions Unresolved: Competitive policies between China and the US in areas like semiconductors and artificial intelligence (such as 'Trade War 2.0') may continue through non-tariff means.
Divergence in Liquidity Impact: If the agreement drives the US Dollar Index (DXY) down, Bitcoin may benefit from a restart of the 'anti-fiat' narrative; however, if negotiations collapse and trigger a flight to safety, gold may divert funds.
3. Chain Effects of the Global Economy
Systemic Impacts of China-US Trade Relaxation May Include:
Supply Chain Restructuring: The agreement may accelerate the trend of 'nearshore outsourcing', enhancing the manufacturing hubs of Mexico and Southeast Asia and increasing the demand for cross-border cryptocurrency payments.
Expectations for Inflation Relief: Tariff reductions are expected to ease pressure on the US CPI, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, indirectly benefiting risk assets.
Geopolitical Risk Shifts: If China-US cooperation strengthens, alternative crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East situation may become new sources of market volatility.
Part Three: Market Game and Investment Strategies Intertwined Under Dual Main Lines
1. Resonance of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Policies
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Index (0.78) indicates it remains within the traditional risk asset framework; if the China-US trade agreement boosts tech stocks, Bitcoin may benefit simultaneously.
Miner Behavior as a Leading Indicator: Historical data shows that after miner selling pressure bottoms out, Bitcoin often enters an upward cycle (like the bull market after miners capitulated in 2023); the current low selling level may indicate a similar trend.
2. Risk and Opportunity Assessment
Short-term Volatility Risks: The accumulation of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives and unclear details of the China-US agreement may trigger price fluctuations, with the support level of $10,000 becoming a dividing line for bulls and bears.
Strengthening Long-term Narratives: The average daily accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs (800 coins) still exceeds miner output (450 coins), and the institutionalization process mitigates some market shocks.
Conclusion: Certainty Logic in a Complex Market
The global market in May 2025 stands at the dual nodes of Bitcoin's 'post-halving cycle' and the 'rebalancing of China-US trade relations'. The low selling pressure from miners and the White House's progress on the agreement appear independent, but point to a core proposition: Asset repricing under liquidity reconstruction. Whether Bitcoin breaks through previous highs or the China-US agreement is finalized, the market will ultimately validate a truth - in the clash between macro iron curtains and crypto narratives, only assets with both resilience and efficiency can achieve long-term victory.
