Cryptocurrency Market Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of a bull market, having established an upward trend after breaking through $93,000.
This round of the market may ultimately aim for a target of $150,000, and Ethereum is also expected to challenge the $4,000 mark again. Although facing short-term pullback pressure, medium to long-term investors should maintain a bullish mindset, viewing pullbacks as good opportunities to accumulate positions.
The technical analysis shows that the daily level has entered a historical high volatility zone, where single-day declines of ten thousand points have occurred multiple times. The current MACD indicator shows signs of a death cross, along with continuous capital outflow signals, indicating a need to be cautious of deep pullback risks in the short term.
Key resistance levels to watch are $108,000, with support levels at $100,000 and strong support at $89,000.
The four-hour level also shows a divergence pattern; aggressive traders may attempt short positions near $104,000 (stop loss at $105,000). If a valid drop below $102,000 occurs, further short positions can be pursued, but be aware of potential news disruptions.
It is worth noting that while the progress of negotiations between China and the U.S. is interpreted as positive by the market, substantial results are yet to be confirmed. There is a divergence between the news and the market; caution is advised when chasing long positions currently. Investors should focus on three aspects: 1) whether the daily level can form an effective breakout; 2) the recovery of the MACD indicator; 3) substantial progress in news developments.
Recommended trading strategies:
1. Medium to long-term investors can wait for pullbacks in the $89,000-$95,000 range to build positions gradually.
2. Short-term traders should pay attention to the $104,000-$108,000 volatility range and trade in the direction of breakouts.
3. All positions should strictly set a 2-3% stop loss, with leverage controlled within 3 times.
Although the bull market pattern has been established, historical experience shows that the true acceleration phase often requires adequate consolidation. Investors are advised to maintain position flexibility, ensuring they do not miss out on trending markets while effectively avoiding short-term volatility risks.
The essence of trend trading lies in 'looking long and acting short,' patiently waiting for the optimal strike point where technical and fundamental aspects resonate.
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