Cryptocurrency Market Trend Analysis and Strategy Adjustment

【Trend Assessment】

The current cryptocurrency market is entering a new cycle initiation phase. BTC has opened an upward channel after breaking through the key level of 93,000. According to the 3-day line level analysis, the long-term upward trend is clear, and the ultimate target for this round of market movement is expected to challenge $150,000, while ETH may once again challenge the high of $4,000.

It is worth noting that this round of upward movement may only be the initial stage of the market, with the real explosive market still to come.

【Strategy Reflection and Adjustment】

As a long-term bullish investor, the author has missed multiple entry opportunities in the past due to excessive pursuit of precise pullback points. After optimizing the strategy, it has been adjusted to a "buy on pullback + strict stop-loss" trend-following trading model, abandoning the mindset of counter-trend shorting.

Investors are advised to focus on seizing pullback buying opportunities, with short-term short positions only serving as hedging tools and requiring quick entries and exits.

【Key Levels and Technical Signals】

1. Daily Level:

The current price has entered a historical high trading volume area (108,000 resistance / 100,000 support).

MACD has shown signs of a death cross, accompanied by continuous capital outflow.

Be cautious of historical repetition: this area has previously seen single-day declines of 10,000 points.

2. Four-Hour Level:

MACD continues to diverge, increasing short-term pullback pressure.

Focus on the 104,000-105,000 range; a valid break below 102,000 can trigger short positions.

Strong support levels: 100,000 (psychological barrier), 89,000 (trend support).

There is uncertainty in the progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and caution is needed:

1. The release of agreement details may trigger sharp fluctuations.

2. The expectation gap caused by U.S. media guidance poses risks.

3. Sudden black swan events may lead to liquidity crises.

【Operational Suggestions】

Short-term (1-3 days):

Aggressive investors may attempt to short near 104,000 with light positions (stop-loss at 105,000).

Conservative investors should wait for directional confirmation.

A valid break below 102,000 can lead to incremental short positions.

Mid to long-term (weekly level):

Any significant pullback is a good opportunity to position.

Focus on the strong support zone of 89,000-92,000.

Trend long positions can moderately widen stop-loss space.

【Core Viewpoints Reiteration】

Although there is a technical pullback demand in the short term, the long-term upward trend has been established. Investors are advised to maintain strategic composure and seize the opportunity for positioning during each deep pullback.

Once the market completes the turnover of chips, a more explosive main upward trend will commence, and patient holders will achieve excess returns.

The specific best entry points have been published internally: #贸易战缓和 .