Since May 2025, Ethereum (ETH) price has surged over 40% in just a few trading days, soaring from around 1730 USD to a maximum of 2608 USD. This strong breakthrough not only reshaped the market's perception of ETH's medium-term trend but also released strong bullish signals under the resonance of on-chain capital behavior, technical structure, and capital flows.
K-line structure: Breakout pattern establishes bullish trend
Since mid-April, Ethereum's price has been long trapped in the 1850–2050 USD oscillation range, forming a typical consolidation platform. Until May 7, the price broke through the key resistance level of 2100 USD with increased volume, accompanied by consecutive bullish candlesticks, forming a 'flag breakout + accelerated rise' structure, subsequently building a short-term high near 2600 USD.
AiCoin K-line chart shows that Ethereum has currently formed a 'five consecutive bullish candlesticks' structure, with solid entities, and accompanied by a moving average system (5MA, 10MA, 20MA) showing a bullish arrangement, with prices consistently running above the short-term moving averages, reflecting strong trend inertia.
Notably, the trading volume before and after May 10 has significantly increased, indicating that the main institutions have obvious entry traces, and the price acceleration phase has strong trading momentum support, further confirming the technical 'breakout effectiveness.'
On-chain data and large fund movements: OBV and MAOBV double confirmation
From the perspective of capital behavior, the **OBV indicator (On-Balance Volume) and MAOBV (OBV moving average)** are rising simultaneously, reflecting a healthy structure of 'volume and price rising together.'
Starting from May 7, OBV has risen from 9 million to the current 13.3 million, with MAOBV also rising simultaneously, indicating that a large amount of capital has indeed entered during the upward process, not a false breakout. Meanwhile, on-chain tracking data shows that multiple million-dollar-level large orders have continuously entered mainstream trading platforms like Coinbase and Binance between May 8 and May 10.
This phenomenon occurred simultaneously with ETF subscriptions, forming a 'two-way fund resonance' effect, which constitutes the main funding engine for this round of increases.
Technical indicator resonance: MACD and KDJ release strong buy signals
Multiple technical indicators also confirm the current strength of the bullish structure:
MACD formed a golden cross on May 5, with both DIF and DEA turning positive, and the red bars continuously expanding until entering a high-level consolidation on May 11, without forming a divergence, indicating that bullish energy has not yet been fully released.
Both RSI and KDJ indicators remain in a strong zone (above 50-70), slightly overbought in the short term but showing no reversal signs, reflecting that market sentiment still leans bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with prices running near the upper band, indicating potential for short-term oscillation and repair, but the overall trend remains healthy.
The overall technical structure is in a 'post-breakout pullback consolidation' stage. If the short-term adjustment does not fall below the 2400 level, there is hope for further attacks on the previous high of 2600 USD or even higher.
Macro and policy catalysis: L2 expansion promotion and Pectra upgrade
This market activity is not without roots. From a fundamental perspective, at least three core benefits exist:
Layer 2 ecosystem explosion: Ethereum's second-layer networks like Arbitrum and zkSync have recently welcomed multiple ecological airdrops and TVL growth, significantly enhancing the value of ETH as a mainchain asset.
Staking APR rises: ETH staking yield has increased from 3.3% to 3.9%, reflecting growing staking demand, reducing market circulation, and forming a supply contraction logic.
The Pectra (Prague + Electra) upgrade that Ethereum is undergoing has become the mid-term core catalyst driving this round of increases. Among them, the introduction of EIP-7702 will greatly simplify user interaction logic, paving the way for the popularization of smart wallets, making ETH closer to the infrastructure positioning of 'mainstream payment and application platform.'
More critically, the introduction of Verkle Tree releases signals for long-term expansion of the Ethereum mainnet, and the short-term performance improvement of the Rollup ecosystem forms upstream and downstream synergy, injecting long-term sustainability valuation premium into ETH. Several leading VCs (including Paradigm and a16z) have significantly increased their holdings of ETH after the upgrade roadmap was announced, with on-chain data showing that VC wallets cumulatively bought over 120,000 ETH from late April to early May; at the same time, developer activity and GitHub submission frequency have significantly increased, reflecting the technical community's high recognition of the upgrade prospects. The Deribit options market also reacted in sync, with ETH implied volatility jumping from 24% to 37%, indicating that the market holds pricing expectations for future volatility.
Market Structure and Bull-Bear Comparison: Short Covering and Bullish Collaboration Drive
Observing the futures market, in the past three days, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has consistently remained positive, indicating a strong willingness to pay for long positions, with no obvious signs of 'short squeeze' acceleration. In other words, the current rise is not based on excessive short squeezing but on sustained capital push.
CME ETH futures position data also shows that long positions have increased by over 15%, with the proportion of institutional clients rising, reflecting that the current trend has the backing of traditional financial power.
Market outlook: 2500 becomes a key defensive level, and after the breakout, the price may see 2800-3000 USD
Based on the current K-line patterns, technical indicators, ETF fund flows, and macro logic, the following judgment can be made:
Short-term support level: 2400–2500 USD range;
Resistance level: 2600 USD previous high, secondary resistance level 2800;
If the price maintains above 2500 to build a platform, it is expected to form a 'flag continuation' pattern, with a target that can reach the 3000 USD level; if it breaks below 2400, it will test the 2100 support level.
Investors are advised to pay attention to ETF fund flows, large on-chain transfers, and ETH/BTC exchange rate changes as the three leading indicators for judging trend continuation.
Conclusion: Ethereum enters a period of multiple resonance and explosive growth; be cautious of short-term pullbacks, but the trend remains unchanged.
Comprehensive analysis shows that Ethereum's 40% surge is not a result of disorderly speculation but a structural breakout amid various fundamental and capital catalysts. ETF fund movements, on-chain fund inflows, technical indicator resonance, and market reassessment of interest rate cut expectations jointly form the core foundation of this round of market activity.
The subsequent market may face short-term technical adjustments, but if macro and liquidity conditions do not significantly reverse, Ethereum is likely to have returned to the main bullish trend phase. Currently, it is a critical confirmation window for the 'atypical early bull market.'
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