$SOL After four long years of waiting, this moment has finally arrived. The upward trend on the right side of Bitcoin is now clear, and the gloom caused by previous breakdowns due to liquidity has dissipated. Although the easing policy started a bit late, liquidity has already broken through previous highs, and the entire market is gearing up. Once the market starts, this will be the most intense main upward wave in nearly four years, and the real speculative feast—the altcoin season—is about to begin.
So, how high can altcoins rise in this bull market? This may just be the beginning. Recently, there have been constant doubts in the market: "Too many coins, hard to have a general rise" "Institutions only favor mainstream coins" "Lack of new narratives, too many rugs"... These viewpoints seem reasonable, but the conclusions are too one-sided. The delay in the altcoin season is due to one reason—funds have not yet arrived. And when will the funds arrive? The answer may lie within the cycle. Every market explosion occurs during times of flooding liquidity; market exhaustion happens when the tide goes out.
Observing the candlestick chart, it can be found that the total market value of altcoins outside the top ten is highly synchronized with global liquidity (such as M2, central bank balance sheets, etc.), and the market value is oscillating upwards along the Fibonacci channel. The trend is synchronized with time, and the expansion and contraction of liquidity follow extremely regular patterns, basically cycling every four years, coinciding with Bitcoin halving and the U.S. election cycle. In the past two altcoin seasons, in 2018, it soared from 350 million to 76 billion, an increase of 20 times; in 2022, it soared from 12.5 billion to 480 billion, an increase of 38 times. If the trend continues, where will the top be in this altcoin season? If the previous two peaks are trend lines, in 2025, the current market value of 260 billion is expected to rise to 3.8 trillion, an increase of 15 times, or even higher.
Currently, liquidity has broken through previous highs, and the slope from May to June is extremely steep. Considering the lagging effect of market transmission, this slope has been advanced by 10 weeks. In the past two years, whenever a similar steep slope appeared, the total market value of altcoins almost always skyrocketed. We are very likely to witness new highs in the coming weeks. The main upward wave is about to appear, and every pullback is an opportunity to get on board. #BOME #DOGE
