Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.23 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.51%, amounting to $2.05 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $242.7 billion, with a growth rate of 0.04% over the past 7 days, among which USDT accounts for 61.96%.
This week, BTC's price showed a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $103,158; ETH showed a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $2,335.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: PNUT with a 7-day increase of 93.83%, MOG with a 7-day increase of 71.4%, PEPE with a 7-day increase of 45.43%, and WIF with a 7-day increase of 32.29%.
This week, the net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $919.3 million; the net outflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF is $38.2 million.
The 'Fear & Greed Index' on May 10 is 70 (the index is higher than last week), with this week's sentiment: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.
Market Forecast:
This week, there was continued issuance of stablecoins, large inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF, and small net outflows from the Ethereum ETF. Due to Trump's policy declaration on easing tariffs, even if the Federal Reserve firmly believes it is not the right time to cut rates, BTC surged from $97,000 to break through $104,000. However, on-chain data shows that profit-taking addresses began to take profits after breaking $100,000. If BTC wants to break its previous high, it still needs the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy and substantial capital inflows. Notably, fundamentally strong altcoin projects have all seen significant increases this week.
The market is still in a state of greed. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 17.1%, which is lower than last week; a rate cut in June seems unlikely, and we need to see if there will be a rate cut in July. With most countries around the world implementing quantitative easing policies, several U.S. states passing Bitcoin strategic reserve bills, and some publicly listed companies actively 'seizing Bitcoin', the outlook for the market in 2025 remains optimistic. However, liquidity issues may arise in summer, and it is advisable to take partial profits at certain stages.
Understanding the Present
Review of the Week's Major Events
1. On May 6, according to CNBC, Trump arranged two cryptocurrency-themed dinners this month—one for wealthy political donors and another for 'Meme Coin' millionaires;
2. On May 6, according to Nansen data, the top five public chains by active addresses over the past 7 days are: Solana (24.215 million), Tron (5.851 million), Base (5.42 million), BNB Chain (5.243 million), and Aptos (4.889 million);
3. On May 8, according to official news, payment service provider Stripe announced the launch of stablecoin financial accounts, allowing users to send and receive funds through fiat and cryptocurrency channels, now covering 101 countries/regions;
4. On May 7, Vaulta (formerly EOS) announced that the EOS token will be swapped for $A on May 14, supporting a 1:1 wear-free exchange with no changes to the tokenomics;
5. On May 7, market data shows that Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has continued to rise since March 26, currently reported at 65.4%, setting a new high in this bull market.
6. On May 7, according to Coindesk, Visa (V)'s venture capital division made a strategic investment in startup BVNK, which is building a stablecoin-based payment infrastructure, reflecting the trend of traditional financial companies entering the blockchain-driven currency flow;
7. On May 7, according to official news, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced a further investment of $53.4 million to acquire 555 BTC;
8. On May 9, cryptocurrency exchange platform Gemini received regulatory approval to expand its cryptocurrency derivatives trading in Europe. Gemini has obtained a MiFID II license issued by the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), allowing the exchange to offer cryptocurrency derivatives in the EU. The derivatives that Gemini will launch in the EU and the European Economic Area will include perpetual futures and other derivatives, which advanced users of Gemini will be able to use;
9. On May 9, according to a statement released on Thursday, Bitcoin miners MARA and CleanSpark both saw revenue growth in the first quarter of this year, increasing by 30% and 63%, respectively.
Macroeconomics
1. On May 3, Buffett stated that investing in Japan fully aligns with our investment philosophy and that he will not sell Japanese stocks in the next decade.
2. On May 7, U.S. President Trump stated, 'We may renegotiate the USMCA. We will maintain friendly relations with Canada. I respect Canadians';
3. On May 7, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, announced at a press conference that the reserve requirement ratio would be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market. The policy interest rate will also be lowered by 0.1 percentage points;
4. On May 8, U.S. President Trump stated: I believe the 10% tariff baseline has been set; the 10% benchmark rate for the UK is not a template for other countries; 10% is a very low number, and other countries may be higher;
5. On May 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in response to a question that President Trump's request for a rate cut would not affect the Federal Reserve's work at all;
6. On May 8, the Federal Reserve maintained the May benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, keeping rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting;
7. On May 9, according to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is 17.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 82.9%.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 5 to May 9, the net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. was $919.3 million; as of May 9, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.872 billion, currently holding $19.542 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $64.108 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $123.258 billion.
The net outflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF is $38.2 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
1. Canada Crypto Week will be held from May 11 to 17, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;
2. ETHWomen will be held on May 13, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;
3. ULTILAND will host an offline event titled 'A Star Is Born - AI x ARTFi x RWA' on Thursday, May 15, at 3:00 PM in Hong Kong's Central Trading Square.
4. Bitcoin 2025 will be held from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, USA;
5. NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23 to 25, 2025, in New York, USA;
6. Permissionless IV will be held from June 24 to 26, 2025, in New York, USA.
Project Progress
1. VanEck plans to launch a new crypto-related ETF 'NODE' on May 14. This ETF will invest in 30 to 60 stocks related to the digital asset economy, including investments in crypto exchanges, Bitcoin mining companies, and data centers;
2. The proposal solicitation for the NEAR chain-abstract based relayer is open for applications until May 15. This RFP aims to build a chain-abstract based relayer infrastructure, which will enable developers to seamlessly sponsor gas fees or allow users to pay transaction fees across multiple blockchains, accepting base tokens (such as ETH, SOL) and mainstream stablecoins (USDT/USDC) as gas deposits;
3. The distributed validation infrastructure Obol will have its TGE on May 15.
Important Events
1. Galaxy plans to go public on Nasdaq on May 16.
Token Unlocking
1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 152 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $27.69 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply;
2. Cyber (CYBER) will unlock 4.23 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $6.2 million, accounting for 4.23% of the circulating supply;
3. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $56.01 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;
4. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $16.20 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply;
5. Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 46.39 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $58.54 million, accounting for 4.64% of the circulating supply;
6. Apecoin (APE) will unlock 13.34 million tokens on May 17, valued at approximately $9.9 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We have developed a service system based on 'trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking', which combines in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring, along with weekly updates of (Hotcoin Selections) strategy live broadcasts and (Blockchain Today) daily news briefings, providing precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Based on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks, helping professional institutions capture alpha returns and jointly seize value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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