The recent appreciation of Bitcoin, which surpassed the historic mark of $100,000, has reignited the debate about a possible altseason — the period when altcoins (alternative coins) tend to outperform BTC in percentage gains. However, the altseason thermometer, an indicator that measures the relative strength of altcoins compared to Bitcoin, registers only 44/100, signaling that, for now, the market is still far from the classic frenzy associated with these cycles.
Why has altseason not taken off yet?
1. Bitcoin dominance: The rise of BTC is driven by macroeconomic factors, institutional adoption (like ETFs), and the perception of a "safe haven" amid global uncertainties. This keeps capital concentrated in the market leader, delaying migration to altcoins.
2. Moderate risk aversion: With high interest rates in key economies and regulatory volatility, investors prefer assets perceived as less risky, such as Bitcoin, over smaller projects.
3. Fragmented liquidity: Many altcoins still suffer from low liquidity and reduced market capitalization, making sustained upward movements difficult.
But hope persists: Why is an altseason still possible?
- Historical cycles: In previous cycles, altseason usually occurred after Bitcoin stabilized at new levels, when investors seek exponential returns in emerging projects.
- Attractive prices: Many altcoins are 70-90% below their all-time highs, which may attract long-term buyers.
- Catalysts in sight: Events such as the approval of Ethereum ETFs, network upgrades (e.g., Solana, Avalanche), and the resurgence of themes like DeFi and AI in Web3 could rekindle interest.
- Capital rotation: If Bitcoin consolidates between $90-110k, some profits may migrate to altcoins, especially those with solid fundamentals and real use cases.
What to observe now?
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): If it falls below 50%, it could indicate the beginning of rotation.
- Volume on altcoin exchanges: Sustained increase signals growing interest.
- Macro news: Interest rate cuts by the Fed or regulatory advancements could release speculative capital.
Conclusion: Despite the thermometer reading 44/100, the path to an altseason is not closed — it just requires patience and strategic timing. While Bitcoin leads, quality altcoins are quietly gearing up. As the saying goes in the market: "When you least expect it, altseason will arrive." Therefore, diversification and attention to fundamentals are key to navigating the upcoming months.
📊 Tip: Monitor projects with sustainable tokenomics, active teams, and real partnerships — they tend to lead the next wave.
