Global M2 Hits $111 Trillion—Will Bitcoin Be the Escape Hatch?

Bitcoin crossed $100,000 this week, hitting $104,000 before stabilizing at $103,000. The action followed word that US and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland to discuss a trade deal. Markets reacted fast. Bitcoin surged as optimism returned. Analysts look beyond headlines. The fundamental story is global liquidity.

Macro investor Julien Bittel believes global M2 money supply is an excellent leading indication of Bitcoin's direction. His figure showed a 12-week gap between M2 growth and high crypto prices. When M2 rises, Bitcoin follows three months later.

Global M2 rose from $98 trillion to $108 trillion between 2023 and 2024. Bitcoin officially topped $100,000. In mid-2024, M2 paused its rise.

Bitcoin also slowed, dropping below $80,000. Bittel called that range consolidating. M2 moves swiftly again today. It surpassed $111 trillion. If that pattern continues, BTC may rise until mid-2025.

Some disagree with Bittel's timing. Analyst Benjamin Cohen questioned if crypto assets usually follow liquidity fluctuations. He said that Bitcoin peaked in 2017 and 2021 before M2. That contradicts M2 leading BTC by 12 weeks.

Cohen offered another viewpoint. Bitcoin may lead, with M2 modifications afterward. If so, the coin's recent rise may indicate a drop in worldwide liquidity in the coming months.

Cohen also mentioned Bitcoin's 2022 crash. That dip corresponded with M2 bottoming out, but the FTX disaster prolonged it. Bitcoin's price changes don't necessarily follow M2's schedule, he said. Exchange failures like these might disturb rhythm.

This viewpoint reveals another prognosis. If BTC is lagging, the rise may signal danger, not resilience.

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