M2T111

🟨 GLOBAL M2 HITS $111 TRILLION — IS BITCOIN THE ESCAPE HATCH? 🟨

Bitcoin soared past $100,000 this week, touching $104K before cooling off at $103K. The surge came after news of an upcoming U.S.–China trade meeting in Switzerland, igniting optimism across global markets. But beneath the headlines, many analysts are watching something deeper: global liquidity.

Macro investor Julien Bittel highlights the global M2 money supply as a key leading indicator for Bitcoin. Historically, when M2 expands, BTC follows 12 weeks later. Between 2023 and 2024, global M2 rose sharply—from $98T to $108T—and Bitcoin responded by breaching the $100K mark. When M2 paused mid-2024, BTC dipped under $80K. Now, M2 has surged again—passing $111 trillion. If the pattern holds, we may see a strong Bitcoin rally by mid-2025.

But not everyone agrees. Analyst Benjamin Cohen argues that Bitcoin often leads, not lags, liquidity. In both 2017 and 2021, BTC topped out before M2 peaked. According to him, the current Bitcoin rally may actually signal that liquidity could soon tighten. He also points to the 2022 crash, which aligned with a low in M2, but was made worse by the FTX collapse—showing how external shocks can throw off even the most reliable macro signals.

So, is Bitcoin’s rise a resilient response to liquidity—or a warning sign of a looming downturn? With M2 accelerating again, the next move could define the macro narrative for the rest of 2025.

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Global M2 Hits $111 Trillion—Will Bitcoin Be the Escape Hatch?

Bitcoin crossed $100,000 this week, hitting $104,000 before stabilizing at $103,000. The action followed word that US and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland to discuss a trade deal. Markets reacted fast. Bitcoin surged as optimism returned. Analysts look beyond headlines. The fundamental story is global liquidity.

Macro investor Julien Bittel believes global M2 money supply is an excellent leading indication of Bitcoin's direction. His figure showed a 12-week gap between M2 growth and high crypto prices. When M2 rises, Bitcoin follows three months later.

Global M2 rose from $98 trillion to $108 trillion between 2023 and 2024. Bitcoin officially topped $100,000. In mid-2024, M2 paused its rise.

Bitcoin also slowed, dropping below $80,000. Bittel called that range consolidating. M2 moves swiftly again today. It surpassed $111 trillion. If that pattern continues, BTC may rise until mid-2025.

Some disagree with Bittel's timing. Analyst Benjamin Cohen questioned if crypto assets usually follow liquidity fluctuations. He said that Bitcoin peaked in 2017 and 2021 before M2. That contradicts M2 leading BTC by 12 weeks.

Cohen offered another viewpoint. Bitcoin may lead, with M2 modifications afterward. If so, the coin's recent rise may indicate a drop in worldwide liquidity in the coming months.

Cohen also mentioned Bitcoin's 2022 crash. That dip corresponded with M2 bottoming out, but the FTX disaster prolonged it. Bitcoin's price changes don't necessarily follow M2's schedule, he said. Exchange failures like these might disturb rhythm.

This viewpoint reveals another prognosis. If BTC is lagging, the rise may signal danger, not resilience.

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