Thinking about the future story shifts of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market:
The four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin may no longer apply to the future cryptocurrency market.
The players in the game have transitioned from miners, retail investors, exchanges, crypto punks, and even some gray individuals or organizations to ETFs, MSTR, institutional investors, and governments.
The supply and demand narrative that once revolved around 'halving' has taken on a different weight after Wall Street brought ETFs into the picture.
Once funds from traditional financial markets connect to Bitcoin through the ETF portal, they will follow the global macro climate, interest rate fluctuations, and risk preferences of mainstream assets.
The adjustments to Bitcoin's block rewards, in the face of such a capital scale, will naturally be reassessed in terms of their impact.
Companies like MicroStrategy, which view Bitcoin as a core asset, or long-term investing pension funds, calculate their strategies differently from the early funds chasing hot trends.
They consider asset allocation over ten years or even longer, including deep integration of corporate strategy and means to hedge existing financial system risks.
Their capital injection and holdings carry a strategic stability that alters the existing market volatility rhythm and emotional transmission mechanism.
Governments, once the 'outsiders,' have also intervened in the game. The tightening or loosening of regulations, the trade-offs of digital currency strategies, and even the geopolitical stance towards digital assets, all these forces exert their influence in ways and energy levels that have long transcended Bitcoin's inherent technological cycles.
A policy shift from a significant economy can cause the cryptocurrency market to undergo a major shock or restructuring.
It may also be from 2025 onwards that the pulse of the future cryptocurrency market will more closely follow the grand narratives and deep games of these new main characters.
Bitcoin may become an option in institutional asset allocations, a subject compared to gold and tech stocks, and may also become a tool for financial games between nations.