Bitcoin Rises Against the Trend: A New Narrative for Safe-Haven Assets Amid Global Macroeconomic Changes
On May 9, Bitcoin's price continued to stabilize above $10,300, maintaining a strong trend that has lasted for several weeks.
This performance stands in stark contrast to the subtle turning point in the global macroeconomy: against the backdrop of easing trade tensions and monetary policy maneuvering, crypto assets are uniquely narrating a new story for safe-haven assets.
Recently, the global trade situation has shown rare signs of easing. U.S. President Trump changed his tough stance, first announcing a 'critical tariff agreement' with the UK, and then stating he was considering lowering the punitive tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods.
This shift directly boosted market risk appetite, but Bitcoin did not come under pressure like traditional safe-haven assets; instead, it broke through key resistance levels against the trend. The reason may lie in the 'decentralized' nature of cryptocurrencies being re-priced — in the headwinds of globalization retreating, its censorship-resistant characteristics in cross-border circulation have become an alternative choice for funds seeking a safe margin.
Meanwhile, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has hit a stalemate. Although the latest interest rate meeting decided to keep rates unchanged, Trump's public pressure on Powell has escalated again, demanding an immediate start to the rate-cutting cycle.
If the Federal Reserve ultimately compromises, expectations for global liquidity easing will be further strengthened, and Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation may continue to ferment. Historical data shows that during the three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2019, Bitcoin's price increased by over 150%, far exceeding the performance of gold during the same period.
The current market is facing a tug-of-war of dual logic: the cooling trade war may weaken safe-haven demand, but expectations of monetary easing inject momentum into risk assets. This contradiction has created a wonderful resonance in Bitcoin — its price trend has neither fully followed the pullback of traditional safe-haven assets (like gold) nor been suppressed by the recovery of risk sentiment, but has instead developed an independent trend.
This may indicate that under the complex landscape of intertwined geopolitical and monetary policies, crypto assets are gradually moving away from being merely labeled as risky or safe-haven assets, evolving into an independent option for major asset allocation. In the future, as global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to ferment, Bitcoin’s 'digital gold' narrative may undergo wider validation by institutional investors.
