#山寨季何时到来 "Altcoin Season" refers to a short-term phenomenon where altcoins outperform Bitcoin and provide high returns. The timing of its arrival is difficult to determine precisely and is influenced by various factors:

• Market Cycle Perspective: The cryptocurrency market is cyclical, and altcoin seasons often occur in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. The altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021 both occurred after Bitcoin reached historic highs and entered consolidation. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000 in 2025 and enters a steady phase, capital may flow into altcoins, initiating an altcoin season.

• Changes in Relevant Indicators: A decline in Bitcoin's dominance, along with altcoins outperforming Bitcoin and reaching new market capital highs, often signals the approach of an altcoin season. For example, if Bitcoin's dominance drops from 60% in November 2024 to 51%, and the total market cap of altcoins surpasses the peak in November 2021. Additionally, indicators like the Altcoin Season Index, OTHERS Index, and Google Trends can also help in assessment. When over 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the past 90 days (the Altcoin Season Index surpasses the 75% threshold), or when the OTHERS Index rises significantly and Google Trends show a sustained increase in searches for altcoins, this may indicate the impending arrival of an altcoin season.

• Capital Flow Aspect: When funds flow from Bitcoin to altcoins, it can drive the altcoin market up. When institutional funds shift to altcoins after completing their Bitcoin allocations, and retail funds flow into the altcoin market due to changes in market sentiment, it provides financial support for an altcoin season. For example, if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in 2025, the released liquidity may prompt funds to shift from bank deposits to cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins.

• Macroeconomic Factors: The macroeconomic environment has a significant impact on the altcoin season. 2020 -