The "Altcoin Season" refers to the short-term phenomenon where altcoins outperform Bitcoin, bringing higher returns. The exact timing of its arrival is difficult to determine and is influenced by various factors:

• Market Cycle Perspective: The cryptocurrency market is cyclical, and altcoin seasons often occur in the final year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. The altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021 both occurred after Bitcoin set historical highs and entered consolidation. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000 in 2025 and enters a steady phase, capital may flow into altcoins, initiating the altcoin season.

• Changes in Relevant Indicators: A decrease in Bitcoin's dominance and altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, alongside new highs in their market capitalization, often heralds the arrival of the altcoin season. For example, if Bitcoin's dominance drops from 60% in November 2024 to 51%, and the total market capitalization of altcoins surpasses the peak from November 2021. Additionally, indicators such as the Altcoin Season Index, OTHERS Index, and Google Trends can help in judgment. When over 75% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days (with the Altcoin Season Index breaking the 75% threshold), or if the OTHERS Index rises significantly and search interest in altcoins on Google continues to increase, it may indicate the impending arrival of the altcoin season.

• Capital Flow Perspective: When funds flow from Bitcoin to altcoins, it can drive the altcoin market up. When institutional money shifts from Bitcoin allocation to altcoins, and retail funds flow into the altcoin market due to changes in market sentiment, it can provide financial support for the altcoin season. For example, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in 2025, the released liquidity could prompt funds to shift from bank deposits to cryptocurrencies, especially altcoins.

• Macroeconomic Factors: The macroeconomic environment significantly affects the altcoin season. 2020 -