A new on-chain report by CryptoQuant reveals a striking divergence in behavior among major Bitcoin holders. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr, short-term Bitcoin whales, defined as addresses with more than 1,000 BTC acquired within the last 155 days—now have an average cost basis of $91,900, while long-term holder whales, who’ve held their BTC for over 155 days, have a much lower cost basis of just $32,200.This 185% spread between the two whale cohorts reflects a significant market dynamic shift. It underscores rising investor confidence, even amid elevated prices, and possibly signals a wave of FOMO-driven accumulation.
Whale Behavior Signals Shift in Sentiment
The data compares Realized Price, an on-chain metric representing the average acquisition price of BTC held by a specific cohort. Short-term holder (STH) whales, who have recently entered the market, are buying at nearly three times the level of long-term holder (LTH) whales.
This elevated cost basis for new whales comes as Bitcoin’s spot price continues its post-April rally, trading well above both average cost bases. While both groups are in profit, veteran whales are in a much stronger position, having weathered market cycles and accumulated BTC at lower prices.
The contrast with the 2022 bear market is stark. Back then, the gap between STH and LTH whale cost bases was just 65%, a sign of caution. Today’s 185% gap reflects renewed bullish sentiment and growing appetite among institutional investors and large players, even at what many once considered "top-heavy" levels.
What It Means for the Market
The surge in entry prices for short-term whales could indicate that market participants are expecting further upside for Bitcoin, despite its already high valuation. It may also hint at broader macroeconomic confidence in digital assets amid institutional inflows and global liquidity shifts.
Yet, the widening gap in realized price also raises questions: Are new whales overexposed? Will these high-cost basis positions hold in the face of a correction?
As always, sharp differences in acquisition levels introduce volatility risk, especially if new investors are quick to exit during downturns. However, if this is a sign of long-term conviction, Bitcoin could be entering a new phase of maturity and capital inflow.
Final Thoughts
The on-chain trend suggests that Bitcoin whales are split between seasoned HODLers and bold newcomers, with the latter willing to enter at historic highs. Whether this divergence sets the stage for sustained growth or volatility remains to be seen.
But one thing is clear: the Bitcoin network is attracting capital at every level, from veterans with deep portfolios to fresh whales driven by renewed market enthusiasm.
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