The next major pullback may only be triggered by a rate hike in Japan, which could reverse the trend to bearish. I just mentioned that we are about to enter a unilateral upward trend similar to the one from October 28 to December 18 last year, lasting around 50 days. The real major pullback is likely to occur in July, which is the first month of the third quarter. Japan typically raises interest rates every six months, and July is exactly six months since the last hike. If we can return to the high before December 19 (BTC hitting a new high) in just over a month, we could also escape the peak.

Therefore, the script is completely opposite to what most people in the crypto sphere expect; this year marks a reversal in the second quarter, a pullback in the third quarter (most people expect a rise in the third quarter), and a peak in the fourth quarter. From this perspective, the law of the four-year cycle remains unchanged, and those who claim that the four-year halving cycle rules have been broken are speaking too soon.