As of May 2025, global monetary conditions continue to show a strong upward trajectory. Both the M2 money supply and global liquidity indicators suggest that central banks remain committed to pro-growth policies despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
š° M2 Money Supply Growth: A Liquidity Wave
According to recent data:
ā¢ Current M2 Level: The global M2 money supply has risen to approximately $105 trillion, marking a 3.25% increase since the beginning of 2025.
ā¢ Year-End Projection: Analysts forecast that M2 could surpass $127 trillion by the end of 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of over 18%.
ā¢ Implications: This surge in M2 indicates ample liquidity in the financial system, often a precursor to rising asset prices. Cryptocurrencies, equities, and real estate could benefit from this abundance of capital.
š Global Liquidity Index: Momentum Builds
The Global Liquidity Index (GLI), which measures total available credit and money across economies, is currently estimated at $177.2 trillionānear historical highs
ā¢ Short-Term Forecast: The index is projected to climb steadily through Q4 2025, potentially reaching a momentum reading of 70/100 by early 2026.
ā¢ Driving Forces:
ā¢ The Federal Reserve, ECB, and PBOC continue to favor dovish policies.
ā¢ Ongoing stimulus in China and Japan contributes additional liquidity to global markets.
š® Outlook: May to November 2025
Over the next six months
ā¢ M2 is expected to continue expanding, particularly if inflation remains under control and central banks refrain from aggressive tightening.
ā¢ Global liquidity will likely remain robust, supporting risk-on sentiment across global markets.
ā¢ Risks to monitor:
ā¢ Asset bubbles forming in high-growth sectors.
ā¢ Potential inflationary shocks from energy or geopolitical instability.
š§ Final Thoughts
The combination of rising M2 and abundant global liquidity sets the stage for a favorable environment for investors in the near term. However, market participants should remain vigilant about capital allocation efficiency and inflation dynamics. A sustained rally is possible, but only if underlying economic fundamentals support continued expansion.
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