Behind Ethereum's Short-Term Surge: The Bull Market is Halfway Through, Beware of Risks and Opportunities Driven by Sentiment
One, Market Sentiment and Main Line Logic
Ethereum's two-day violent surge reignites market sentiment, significantly attracting funds compared to the 'mild rise' of Bitcoin and other currencies. From a cyclical layout perspective, whether at 1500 points (ETH) or the second bottoming strategy at 1800 points, current positions have basically exited the loss zone. However, it must be clear: Short-term sentiment-driven markets need to dynamically adjust based on macro funding conditions and trend logic, rather than blindly chasing increases.
Core Judgment:
• The bull market is not over but is halfway through: Continuing the previous viewpoint, even in extreme market conditions, the mid- to long-term bull market logic (such as institutional entry and regulatory advancement) remains intact, but the market has shifted from a 'general rise phase' to 'structural opportunities'.
• Ethereum's rebound logic: Compared to Bitcoin's high point of $100,000, Ethereum's current price still has considerable room for imagination. Its property as a 'base for altcoins' may create local hotspots, but a clear signal for the start of a comprehensive altcoin season has not yet been established (e.g., insufficient capital inflow, new project narratives insufficiently realized).
Two, Key Currency Strategy Analysis
▍Bitcoin (BTC): Volume bottleneck limits breakout, conservative strategies prioritized
• Current Situation: Prices are approaching the $100,000 mark, but yesterday's trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, indicating weak willingness to chase prices. At the macro data level, Bitcoin spot ETF has a net inflow of $117 million, reflecting that institutional allocation demand is still present, but there is a lack of explosive increments in the short term.
• Operation Suggestions: Technical pressure levels are near previous highs, and capital has not formed a resonance, it is recommended to reduce positions by 20%-30% at highs, retaining the base position to observe the effectiveness of the breakout. Support level is at 101,000 points; a drop below this level requires caution for a pullback to the 95,000 points range.
▍Ethereum (ETH): Short-term bullish rebound as the main focus, beware of sustained risks
• Positioning: This surge is defined as 'emotional recovery after long-term stagnation', rather than the start of a new major uptrend. Although the daily trend is strong (20%-50% increase from the low), there has been a net outflow of $16.11 million in spot ETFs, indicating that external funds have not yet formed a consensus.
• Operation Suggestions:
◦ Position Management: Heavily invested individuals should reduce their positions by 1/3 to lock in profits, retaining liquidity to deal with subsequent volatility;
◦ Industry Chain Opportunity: If ETH maintains strength, pay attention to the rebound potential of the L2 sector (such as OP and ARB) and consider timely position switching.
▍Altcoins: Focus on short-term rhythm, prioritize capital safety
• Strategy Core: In the absence of a comprehensive market, focus on single-point breakthroughs, and strictly implement the 'profit-taking + capital recovery' discipline:
◦ SOL: Reached $175 (close to the mid-term target of $180), reduce 1/3 of the cost positions below $100, set a stop-loss at $160 for the remaining positions;
◦ SUI: Cumulative increase of nearly 90%, it is recommended to double the position to get back the principal and leave profits for higher targets;
◦ HYPE: After a 65% increase, it has reached the daily pressure zone; reduce positions at highs and wait for a pullback to confirm support;
◦ Other currencies: Targets with less than 50% increase can be held temporarily, waiting for right-side breakout signals (such as volume stabilizing at key resistance levels).
Three, Macroeconomic Cycle and Position Discipline
• Window Period Characteristics: Bitcoin approaches previous highs, ETH surges in the short term, market volatility will increase. Beware of the inducement risk under 'volume-price divergence'; a true major uptrend requires seeing the implementation of monetary easing policies or significant growth in ETF scale.
• Long-Term Principle: When market consensus bullish sentiment rises, it is often a precursor signal to the cycle top. At this stage, focus on **‘offensive and defensive position structure’** — Core assets (BTC/ETH) should account for 60%-70%, altcoins should be controlled at 20%-30%, and leave 10% liquidity to deal with black swan events.
The crypto market is never short of opportunities, but it lacks a clear rhythm for control. At the critical nodes of emotion and rationality competition, fewer 'black and white' judgments and more 'dynamic balance' strategies are needed to survive and capture excess returns in the second half of the bull market.