After three months of dormancy, Bitcoin has forcefully reclaimed the $100,000 mark with a thunderous momentum, sweeping away previous gloom. This cryptocurrency market barometer has finally regained its strength, not only returning to the volatility range but also showing strong momentum to challenge historical highs.

Classic interpretation of market sentiment and main force intentions: When most investors are bearish due to expectations of tariff negatives, the main force capital goes against the trend, creating a 'golden pit'. Just as the market hesitated, BTC completed a beautiful V-shaped reversal, perfectly illustrating the market truth of 'when others are fearful, I am greedy'.

As trading master Livermore's classic saying goes: 'True profits come from trend markets, not from sideways markets.' The current market is playing out a grand drama of long-short battles among institutional funds, with the $100,000 mark becoming a strategic battleground for bulls and bears. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has consistently maintained a strong consolidation posture, clearly showing its intention to avoid deep corrections.

Reviewing the capital trajectory of this round of market activity, four key signals have clearly revealed the main force's layout:

1. In terms of candlestick language: Perfectly interprets the Wyckoff accumulation model, following three precise tests of bottom support, confirming the formation of the breakout after surpassing the key level of 85;

2. The spot market reveals 'clear card' operations: The order book of Big B network shows a 'ten thousand hand wall', with a $100 million level buy order posted strongly at an average price of $95, such a blatant show of strength by the main force is rare in recent years;

3. Rare divergence in the ETF and futures markets: Bitcoin ETFs continue to see huge capital inflows, but CME futures positions remain unusually stable, with the net difference soaring to the $3 billion level.

4. On-chain dynamics: Coinbase Institutional custody wallets have continuously absorbed BTC for three weeks, and yesterday, before the ETH surge, a large transfer of 50,000 BTC was suddenly seen, suspected to be an institutional custody action, significantly boosting short-term bullish sentiment.

Although these market signals are clear in hindsight, they did not constitute sufficient bullish basis during the unfolding of the market. This article aims to refine the closed-loop thinking of investment logic to provide reference value for subsequent trend judgments.

Ethereum performed strongly today, with a single-day increase exceeding 20%, showcasing a strong technical breakout trend.

Market bullish sentiment has been effectively activated; for investors who have not yet built positions, any technical pullback may become a better entry opportunity. The current price level has partially reflected market expectations, with funds having already positioned themselves before the price broke through the $3000 mark.

The driving factors of this round of market can be summarized in three points:

1. Technical indicators show a need for a rebound from oversold conditions

2. Positive impact of the smooth implementation of the ETH network upgrade

3. A short squeeze triggered by excessive short positions in the market

Overall, in the current market environment, shorting Ethereum against the trend requires extra caution, as this round of rising momentum still has continuity.

The strongest altcoin season has officially begun, with the altcoin index breaking a key resistance level yesterday. This breakthrough is similar to the two previous occasions in October last year and November this year, each of which led to a significant altcoin rally, while BTC's market share significantly decreased.

Compared to historical cycles, this round of market rebound exhibits obvious front-loading characteristics. After experiencing a deep adjustment where altcoins generally fell by 90%, market panic sentiment has been fully released, and technical indicators show that a bottom has been formed. Judging by cyclical patterns and capital flows, the altcoin market is expected to enter a main upward wave phase in the next 8-12 weeks, with the SUI ecosystem, AI track, and MEME sector likely to become the leading pioneers.

Tracking hot sectors

  1. ETH leading effect is evident

  • ETH breaks key resistance level, triggering a comprehensive explosion in the ecosystem

  • Meme coin subdivisions: Pepe (+320%), Neiro (+185%), Moodeng (+152%)

  • Infrastructure projects: EigenLayer (TVL increased by 45%), ETHFI (staking volume reaches new highs), ENA (derivative protocol)

  1. Public chain competitive landscape

  • SUI chain's TVL increased by 78% week on week, DEX trading volume jumped into the top five

  • The technical indicators show a strong breakout pattern, with a 7-day increase of 142%

  1. New dynamics in the AI track

  • Virtual Protocol launches an innovative staking model (APY mechanism with self-enhancing effects)

  • Fartcoin completes AI computing power network upgrade, weekly trading volume increases fivefold

  • The overall market capitalization of the sector increased by 210% month-on-month, with continuous capital inflow

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