$BTC recently broke through the key level of $104,000, with its market capitalization share rising to 64.5%, reaching the highest level since the DeFi boom of 2021. This phenomenon not only reflects the risk-aversion preference of institutional funds but also reveals the deep impact of the global macro situation on the cryptocurrency market.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut game and the rebalancing of capital flows. According to the latest data from CME's 'FedWatch', the market expects an 83.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged in June, but the probability of a 25 basis point cut in July has risen to 60.1%. This 'short stability, long easing' policy expectation is reshaping capital allocation logic: since Bitcoin broke through $85,450 on April 11, its price has risen by 16% amid accelerated ETF capital inflows. Notably, data shows that in the past four weeks, the U.S. stock market has seen an outflow of $24.8 billion, the highest in two years, with some funds possibly migrating to crypto assets.