Bitcoin's movement was fierce, surging about 7,000 points overnight, strongly breaking through the $100,000 mark, peaking at $104,000. Yesterday, Sponge wrote in an article (Trump's call ignites a 30% surge in Bitcoin! Dogecoin, PEPE rebound from the bottom, is the May doubling market coming? Can gorilla chase highs after 100 times?) that: 'This indicates that bullish signals continue, and the four-hour level further confirmed the strong support at $95,700, breaking the previous downtrend and negating the possibility of a pullback below $96,000.'
Yesterday, due to a large number of pending orders in the $90,000 to $100,000 range, Sponge initially could not fully confirm Bitcoin's breakout trend. However, by observing that the RSI indicator did not show a top divergence, and some altcoins started to rise, it was ultimately confirmed that Bitcoin had achieved a valid breakout. Today, Bitcoin broke through $104,000 as expected, with the prediction process and result being basically accurate. Any doubts regarding market analysis can follow me.
BTC
At 5 a.m. today, Bitcoin briefly tested $104,000 but failed to break through effectively. After a high spike, it quickly fell back and is currently oscillating between $102,500 and $104,000.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin has successfully broken through the central axis position of the weekly central axis, and the next target is expected to test the upper edge of the weekly central axis, with resistance around $108,000.
If today’s closing price can consistently hold above the 120-day moving average, it will form a typical bullish arrangement, indicating that this rising trend may have just begun.
Today's key is to observe whether Bitcoin faces resistance and pulls back in the $102,500-$104,000 range or continues to break upwards. In this critical moment, one should remain calm and make rational judgments.
Looking back at the strong rebound after May 19, 2021, that round of market also experienced panic washing, and also saw a rise in price along with the long-term holders (LTH) supply curve. The market generally believes that the second half of the bull market has begun—there are many similarities between the current situation and then.
But this time, it may not fall into a deep correction after a surge like in the past. The market structure and the emotions of participants may have quietly changed.
However, from the perspective of MVRV extreme deviation pricing range, the orange line at $107,300 is the nearest hurdle, and the area between the orange line and the red line may be the limit of this rebound.
ETH
ETH's exchange rate strongly broke through the 0.02 mark, violently rising from 1817 to a peak of 2490, approaching $2500, with a daily increase of 40%. Ethereum has directly transformed from 'E Guardian' to 'E Big Brother' in this wave.
Currently, Ethereum has not shown any obvious top signals, and its movement is extremely strong, which can be seen as a turning point.
The bearish sentiment in the market remains strong, with a dense shorting force, but the key resistance levels of 1800, 2000, and 2200 have all been broken one by one, forming a continuous stomp. The current short squeeze is extremely fierce and may not be over yet; short sellers are facing the risk of being 'crushed.'
In the current market, as long as you dare to short, you are providing fuel to the main forces; if the fuel is sufficient, it will keep rising. Currently, the contract accumulation is 30 times that of the spot market, and the impact of the spot market is negligible. If the main contract doesn't move, the market won't reverse.
Ethereum still has opportunities for bullish positions in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, it still leans towards downward trends. Sponge reminds everyone not to fall easily into the mindset of 'the bull market has arrived.' Be cautious when going long while maintaining a skeptical attitude. Over-relying on the bull market or being too optimistic could lead to hanging at the peak. I know you can’t take this in right now.
Secondary market
In the secondary market, whether mainstream altcoins or small-cap tokens, there has been a significant surge recently, with overall strong momentum. Yesterday, Sponge noted in the article (Trump's call ignites a 30% surge in Bitcoin! Dogecoin, PEPE rebound from the bottom, is the May doubling market coming?) that both Dogecoin and PEPE surged dramatically.
(1) PEPE surged 30%: target points are around 0.097 and 0.105, Sponge exited at 0.106!
(2) DOGE surged 15%: the recommended entry point is 0.182, and Sponge has currently recovered the principal and has also withdrawn 90% of the other profits. Leaving 10% to take a chance at 0.30.
Although altcoins have begun to rise, don't rush in; these three coins should not be touched:
(1) Previously strong coins, such as OM, LAYER, MEMEFI.
MEMEFI had an astonishing rise in a short time, doubling in just a few days, but yesterday, it crashed against the trend while the market was rising, plummeting 62% within 24 hours. Additionally, typical 'bear market manipulation coins' like GAS, FUN, FARTCOIN, ALCH, AERGO, ALPACA, VOXEL, and projects that have already risen in advance tend to experience stagnation during a strong market, with over 90% unable to keep up. It is recommended to consider shorting these types of coins at highs.
(2) Those that have been sideways along the yearly line, falling but not rising, have a high time cost.
(3) New coins, coins produced in bulk on Binance ALPHA.
Coins that can be bought now
(1) Mainstream coins have a higher certainty: Don't be misled by their volatility; when the market rises, they will definitely follow and won't lag behind.
(2) Coins that have only surged once in the short term but have been active long-term and are controlled by whales.
(3) Oscillating upwards, repeatedly washing positions: coins like VIRTUAL AIXBT, or old popular coins like WLD, BOME, and ORDI, will present opportunities for supplementary rises.
On-chain
The meme produced on-chain is not present, there are several around 1m, then poured in an instant. Last night, Kanye retweeted a post with CA, then DIDDY spiked instantly, with a peak market cap of over $150 million, but it didn’t hold for long before it started to crash; currently, the FDV is around $38M.
