Bitcoin is really crazy, I didn't expect it to directly reach 100,000 USD. We hinted yesterday that once it surpasses 100,000 USD, there would be an upward momentum, and it would continue to rise for a while. However, whether it can break the historical high here is uncertain, but judging from the market's reaction, it is possible to break the historical high because there are too many retail investors who missed this wave, and the market was previously very bearish, so there are very few people in the market.
This can also be verified from the chart below: the level of liquidation for longs far exceeds that of shorts. The short liquidation data of 800 million has already created history; therefore, before the short liquidation data came out yesterday, apart from the exchanges, it would have been hard for everyone to think that there were still so many pending short positions above.
Many people intuitively feel that there aren't many shorts left above, but because this round of the market has risen quite hesitantly, with two waves of false short zones in between, it has caused a lot of shorts to be unable to decisively cut their positions, ultimately resulting in a new record for single-day short liquidations.
Bitcoin's rise like this is not normal at all; a major crash is imminent. Funds are divided into two batches for bottom-fishing. In terms of timing, a real bull market will start in the next 1-2 months.
Scenario 1: BTC hovers between 100,000-105,000 for three days, starts plummeting next week, and loses the gains from the past month in seven days. By the end of May, it dips to 78,000, then oscillates between 78,000-85,000. By the end of June, it tests 80,000 again, and in July the bull market begins to rally, with the cryptocurrency market blooming, completing the peak of this bull market in October-November.
Scenario 2: BTC directly rises to 110,000 at the current price, ETH hits 3,000, and the altcoin sector rotates, leaving me completely out of the market and becoming a joke. From mid-May to mid-June is the summer of altcoins, completing a small bull market without any new external retail investors entering and without rate cuts. By the end of June, the cryptocurrency market completely crashes, and the path afterward is still not figured out.
Fortunately, we have primarily been bullish for the past month. We are in the market, and the previous safety line for holding coins was 93,000. We have now raised the safety line to 97,000. As long as Bitcoin stays above 97,000, it is safe in the short term.
Why did ETH surge 30% and can it continue to rise?
10 billion in short fuel is burning wildly, causing a chain of liquidations! We reported this event back in late March, but I mistakenly wrote the wrong number. It was billions of dollars chasing shorts on ETH, which could lead to a very strong short squeeze. I thought the shorts would explode in April, but it turned out to be in May. Now these people who shorted from 3000 should be liquidated!
The most critical week for Ethereum is from the 12th to the 19th of this month. If ETH cannot stabilize above 2450, it will be a rebound, and ETH will fall back. Only if the new weekly line stabilizes above 2450 from the 12th to the 19th can we consider it a reversal. Do you agree with this view?
Small altcoins have started to rise, with significant increases. Yesterday, Sweet Dream recommended Dogecoin, PEPE, and UNI in the article (Trump's remarks explode the market! Bitcoin surges 30%, should we take profits or increase positions? Dogecoin, PEPE hit the bottom, May targets doubled? Can we chase after Gorilla 100 times?).
PEPE surged 30%: Target levels are around 0.097 and 0.105, Sweet Dream sold at 0.106!
DOGE surged 15%: The recommended entry point is 0.182. Sweet Dream has now withdrawn the principal and has also taken 90% of the other profits. Keeping 10% to try for 0.30.
UNI surged 20%: The recommended entry point from the community outside is 5.5, and UNI has now risen to 6.6. Sweet Dream has withdrawn the principal and has also taken 90% of the other profits. Keeping 10% to try for 7.
Although altcoins have started to rise, everyone should not rush in. These three types of coins should not be touched:
(1) Previously strong coins, such as OM, LAYER, MEMEFI.
MEMEFI previously had a high rise, doubling in just a few days. Yesterday, it took advantage of the market's rise to sell off, dropping 62% in 24 hours. There are also some coins like gas, fun, fartcoin, alch, aergo, alpaca, voxel that are playing tricks in the bear market, as well as some coins that have risen in advance recently. During the market's rise, 90% of them will find it hard to increase, so consider shorting at highs.
(2) Coins that have been sideways on the yearly line, following the drop but not the rise, have too high of a time cost.
(3) New coins produced in bulk on Binance ALPHA.
Coins that can be bought now
(1) The ones with higher certainty are mainstream coins: don't watch too slowly; mainstream rises will definitely follow and won't play dead.
(2) Short-term coins that have only risen once but are active long-term with funds.
(3) Fluctuating upwards and repeatedly washing positions: VIRTUAL AIXBT is like this, or WLD BOME ORDI, etc. These old popular coins will also see a rebound. That's it for today's article; everyone, hit subscribe, and let’s achieve financial freedom together in this round of the bull market.
