The crypto market rebound in 2024 is supported by multiple factors: the tightening supply after Bitcoin halving, increased liquidity expectations due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and continued inflow of institutional funds through spot ETFs (BlackRock's IBIT holds over 300,000 BTC). If the Ethereum ETF is approved, it may further stimulate the market. Technically, if BTC can stabilize above the key level of $67,000, the probability of breaking through the historical peak of $69,000 from June 2021 is quite high. However, we must be wary of black swan risks: uncertainties in U.S. election policies, fluctuations in exchange reserves (currently about 3 million BTC), and strengthened regulations may trigger short-term selling pressure. Overall, considering the improvement in liquidity and the expansion of ecological applications, the probability of breaking a new high within the year exceeds 60%. It is recommended to pay attention to on-chain data and changes in macro policies.