The rebound of the crypto market in 2024 is supported by multiple factors: the tightening of supply after Bitcoin halving, increased liquidity expectations due to Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued inflow of institutional funds through spot ETFs (BlackRock's IBIT holds over 300,000 BTC). If the Ethereum ETF is approved, it may further stimulate the market. From a technical perspective, if BTC can stabilize above the key level of $67,000, the probability of breaking through the historical peak of $69,000 in June 2021 is quite high. However, caution is needed for black swan risks: uncertainty in US election policies, fluctuations in exchange reserves (currently about 3 million BTC), and enhanced regulation could trigger short-term selling pressure. Overall, given the improvement in liquidity and the expansion of ecological applications, the probability of reaching a new high this year exceeds 60%. It is recommended to pay attention to on-chain data and macro policy changes.