$BTC
🚀 #BTC: The 'Last Shakeout' Before the Key Breakthrough? Three Major Signals Indicate the Direction! 🚀
Bitcoin has recently been oscillating between $65,000 and $72,000, and the focus of market debates is becoming clearer: Is this consolidation a mid-stage in a bull market, or a precursor to a trend reversal? From three major dimensions—on-chain data, institutional momentum, and technical patterns—key clues may have emerged——
🔍 Signal 1: Whales' 'Dormant Chips' Are Starting to Move
On-chain analysis shows that addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC have seen small-scale transfers in the past two weeks, with some flowing into exchanges like Coinbase. Historical experience suggests that whale activity often accompanies trend changes, but it's essential to distinguish between 'taking profits' or 'reallocating'—current net outflows from exchanges still exceed inflows, with long-term holders (LTH) accounting for as much as 75%, indicating limited selling pressure.
🔍 Signal 2: Institutional Buying 'Under Currents'
Although the inflow of funds into the BTC spot ETF has been volatile, BlackRock's IBIT holding has exceeded 300,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy (214,000 BTC), and the trend of traditional giants 'passively increasing their positions' remains unchanged. In the derivatives market, CME Bitcoin futures open interest has hit a record high, with hedge funds betting on a 'macroeconomic policy shift' catalyzing a breakout!
🔍 Signal 3: Technical 'Converging Triangle' Approaching the End
On a weekly level, BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle since the March peak, with the volatility range gradually narrowing. If accompanied by increased volume breaking the $73,000 resistance, the theoretical target could reach $85,000; conversely, if it loses the $64,000 neckline, it may retest the critical support at $58,000.
⚠️ Risk Warning
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and escalating geopolitical conflicts could become short-term black swans, but the 'supply contraction effect' after the Bitcoin halving will accelerate in Q3. Regardless of the breakout direction, volatility expansion is inevitable—will you choose to dollar-cost average on dips, or wait for trend confirmation?
