Revisiting Bitcoin Cycle Theory Two months ago, I asserted that the Bitcoin bull market cycle had ended, and it now seems that this judgment was flawed. Currently, the selling pressure on Bitcoin is gradually easing, with a large amount of capital flowing into the market through ETFs.
In the past, the Bitcoin market was relatively simple, mainly involving old whales, miners, and newly entered retail investors, with assets circulating among them.
Once retail funds were exhausted, whales would sell, making it easy to predict the peak of the cycle.
At that time, everyone rushed to cash out, and those who failed to act in time often found themselves in an asset crisis.
However, the current Bitcoin market is no longer what it used to be. ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), institutional investors, and even government agencies are actively participating, with frequent buying and selling.
In the past, when whales sold to take profits at high prices, it often triggered a chain reaction, causing prices to plummet.
Now, traditional cycle theory needs to be reassessed.
With new funds continuously flowing in, the trading volume is full of uncertainties, and various signs indicate that the Bitcoin market is accelerating its integration with the traditional financial system.
Therefore, compared to focusing on the selling trends of whales, the inflow scale of institutional investors and ETFs is more worthy of attention, as these new forces are expected to withstand the pressure brought by whale sell-offs.
Objectively speaking, the market still faces challenges in digesting the newly incoming capital and has not yet fully revitalized, with most indicators at moderate levels.
Although Bitcoin prices have shown an upward trend recently, from a cyclical perspective, now may be the time to secure profits. Even if previous judgments were incorrect, the value of on-chain data should not be ignored.
