Did Modi back down this time? India is shouting, "Not a drop of water for Pakistan," but the Baglihar Hydroelectric Plant opened its gates to release water again in less than 72 hours.

The South Asian monsoon is approaching fiercely, and Indian dams simply can't hold up. The Baglihar Dam, this "antique," has a design life of only 50 years (it's already 62 years old this year). Last year's rainy season saw it automatically releasing floodwaters that inundated its own village. This time, with upstream water levels surging, if India stubbornly holds back without releasing water, it could quickly lead to a scenario of "a pot boiling porridge" — not only is the pot leaking, but its own citizens will suffer first. Some netizens have calculated that given the capacity of the Indian dams, they can hold back water for a maximum of 24 hours during the rainy season; sustaining it for three days this time is already extraordinary.

On the surface, it looks like releasing water, but in reality, it’s because Pakistan has struck a painful blow. Recent news shows that even India's most advanced S400 air defense system has been targeted by Pakistani missiles, and the air force has lost 5 manned aircraft and dozens of drones. Modi originally intended to use "cutting off water" to divert domestic conflicts, but after suffering setbacks militarily, if he doesn't release water, he may face even more intense retaliation from Pakistan — for example, directly bombing the hydroelectric dam. China's "Asian Water Tower" project in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau makes India feel uneasy — if they truly overplay their "water weapon," it could become awkward if their own water sources are controlled by upstream.