The hottest topic in the crypto circle recently is the wave of altcoin ETF applications! So far, more than 10 institutions have submitted applications for the XRP spot ETF, including asset management giants like Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree, etc. Even Japan's SBI Group has teamed up with Franklin Templeton to plan a digital asset fund focused on XRP.


At the end of April, Coinbase launched XRP futures contracts, followed by CME announcing it would launch them in May; some may think this news is unimportant, but it's crucial to understand
Currently, XRP is the third cryptocurrency to launch futures on CME and Coinbase, and the first two are likely BTC and ETH. XRP is the first altcoin futures contract listed on CME and Coinbase. Coinbase has launched several altcoin contracts, but those are perpetual contracts, and the main entity is Coinbase International Exchange, which is not regulated by the U.S.

It can be seen that XRP is currently the furthest altcoin on the path to compliance. Therefore, it is not excessive to pay attention to XRP; let's look at how XRP has come this far and the potential listing nodes for ETFs.

One, Ripple Lawsuit: From "SEC's Arch Rival" to "Compliance Benchmark"

To understand how XRP has come this far, we must discuss the ongoing four-and-a-half-year battle of SEC vs. Ripple:

  • December 2020: The SEC sued Ripple, accusing it of raising 1.3 billion dollars by selling XRP, violating securities laws.

  • July 2023: The court ruled that XRP itself does not constitute a security, but the institutional sales part needs to pay a 125 million dollar fine.

  • March 2025: The SEC suddenly withdrew the lawsuit, completely ending the litigation. This means that trading XRP in the public market is entirely legal.

This victory can be regarded as a "milestone in crypto regulation":

  • Legal Aspect: The court first proposed the principle of "scenario-based regulation," binding the legal attributes of XRP to the sales scenario, providing a case reference for other cryptocurrencies.

  • Market Aspect: After the lawsuit ended, XRP's price surged 10% in a single day, and exchanges like Coinbase reopened trading, with the market value briefly exceeding 127 billion dollars.

Two, Why is XRP most likely to become the "first altcoin spot ETF"?

Currently, there are 72 cryptocurrency-related ETFs waiting for approval or listing options from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). From XRP, Litecoin, Solana to Penguin Coin, Dogecoin, etc., it covers everything. It will be a crazy year. But so far, XRP is leading.

  1. Compliance Advantage:
    After the victory in the lawsuit, XRP's legal status is completely clarified, and the SEC has no reason to obstruct its spot ETF. In contrast, Solana, Cardano, and others still face the controversy of "whether they are securities."

  2. Market Liquidity:
    XRP's average daily trading volume has long remained in the top five cryptocurrencies, and CME plans to launch XRP futures on May 19, providing liquidity support for the ETF.

  3. Institutional Endorsement:
    In addition to asset management giants clustering to apply, Ripple's collaboration with the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the New York Department of Financial Services adds to XRP's compliance credibility. For example, Ripple's cross-border payment solution has been integrated with over 200 financial institutions.

  4. Policy Dividend:
    The Trump administration's friendly attitude toward cryptocurrencies (such as promoting the "U.S. Crypto Reserve" plan) may accelerate SEC approvals.

Three, Key Timeline: May 2025 or the end of the year?

  • Short-term Focus: The XRP spot ETF application will receive intensive responses from the SEC in May to June. If approved, it will enter a 90-day review period.

  • Long-term Node: Bloomberg analysts predict that the XRP spot ETF may be approved between October and December 2025.

Four, The "butterfly effect" of XRP ETF

  1. Price Volatility:
    Referring to the market situation after the Bitcoin ETF was launched, XRP's price may rise 30%-50% before the ETF is approved, but one must be wary of the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" pullback risk.

  2. Market Landscape:

    1. Capital Inflow: JPMorgan predicts that the XRP spot ETF could attract 3 billion - 6 billion dollars in funding, pushing its market value to challenge the top three cryptocurrencies.

    2. Compliance Demonstration: If XRP is approved, it will pave the way for altcoin ETFs like Solana and ADA, accelerating institutionalization in the industry.

  3. Risk Warning:

    1. Regulatory Variables: The SEC may require the ETF to adopt a "futures + spot" mixed structure or impose strict custody requirements.

    2. Market Manipulation: XRP's highly concentrated holdings (Ripple holds about 50%) may raise liquidity concerns.

Five, Next Altcoin ETF: Solana or Dogecoin?

  1. Solana (SOL):

    1. Advantages: High-performance public chain, active ecosystem, CME has launched SOL futures, and Grayscale and other institutions have submitted five spot ETF applications.

    2. Risks: The SEC has not clarified whether SOL is a security, and litigation risks remain.

  2. Dogecoin (DOGE):

    1. Advantages: Meme coin leader, institutions like Bitwise have submitted applications, and compliance resistance is low (no clear security attributes).

    2. Risks: Lack of practical applications and high price volatility.

  3. Cardano (ADA):

    1. Advantages: Top five by market capitalization, smooth compliance progress, Grayscale has submitted a spot ETF application.

    2. Risks: Slow ecosystem development and low market attention.

Source: Chainthinktank Official

Public Account: Chainthinktank

#Xrp🔥🔥 $ETH