BTC Today's Trend Analysis
Straight to the point: BTC today is like an AE86 just past the five consecutive hairpin turns of Akina, the throttle pushed to $104,000 but the tires are already smoking, the seasoned driver is watching the Bollinger Bands and MACD, debating whether to ease off the throttle.
1. Technical Analysis: Three Major Signals in the Tug-of-War between Bulls and Bears
Bollinger Bands: The ceiling is partying, the floor is leaking air
The price is rubbing against the upper Bollinger Band, the gap between the upper and lower bands is widening like a crocodile's mouth, volatility is soaring ready to jump up and down at any moment. Either stabilize at the upper band and charge towards $110,000 or be thrown back to the middle band looking for support.
MACD: The red bars are smoking, but the fuel tank is running low
DIF and DEA are hand in hand pushing upwards, although the red bars are high, caution is needed—new price highs with red bars indicate "top divergence," akin to a warning of an engine failure.
Key Levels: $100,000 is a cover-up, $105,000 is a bomb
The upper $105,000 is a psychological barrier; breaking it could lead straight to $110,000; if the lower $100,000 breaks, it directly looks at the $98,000 middle band support, and if it can't hold, it turns into a scenario of "seeing the roof."
2. Operational Guide: Don't be cannon fodder, learn from institutions' homework
For those holding positions:
Don't chase the highs! It's like driving a speedboat in the rain; set a trailing stop at $103,500, securing profits is better than gambling with your life.
For those with no positions:
Two options: either wait for a breakout past $105,000 and confirm with a pullback, or wait around the $100,000 area for stabilization. Don't place orders more than 3% above the current price; catching falling knives carelessly can lead to losses.
Watching time:
The closing of the four-hour K-line at 4 PM and 8 PM is a turning point, night owls set your alarms.
3. News Front: Black Swans Queuing Up to Take Off
US ETF Fund Flow:
Yesterday saw a net inflow of $142 million, but the total scale has reached $112.7 billion; institutional retreats could trigger a 10% plunge at any moment.
Trump's nuclear bomb at 10 PM tonight:
Could announce a trade agreement or cryptocurrency tax reduction policy, volatility is expected to soar.
Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations:
57% probability of a cut in July; if delayed, BTC might face a hammering. Gold has plummeted, with some funds shifting to BTC for hedging.
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