What is Token Unlock?

Token unlock is the process of releasing a certain amount of tokens from a locked state (vesting) to circulate in the market.

This process is carried out according to a specific roadmap that has been pre-designed since the project was launched, commonly referred to as the 'vesting schedule.'

Locked tokens may belong to:

  • Development team

  • Venture capitalists (VCs)

  • Advisors

  • Community rewards

  • Ecosystem development fund...

The initial token lock is a measure to control supply, create price stability in the early stages, and avoid situations where whales sell off to make quick profits.

The purpose of the initial token lock

  • Avoid early price dumping by investors.

  • Build trust within the community regarding the project's long-term commitment.

  • Ensure transparent token distribution, according to each development phase.

Why does token unlock strongly affect cryptocurrency prices?

Token unlock affects market prices because it alters the supply and demand of a specific token.

When a large amount of tokens is released at once, early investors or the team may sell to secure profits, creating significant selling pressure. This can lead to a sharp price drop if there is not enough buying force to absorb it.

Key factors causing price volatility around the unlock time

There are 3 main factors you need to pay attention to:

  1. Market sentiment: Investors often sell ahead of news when they know an unlock event is approaching. The fear of a sell-off makes them actively exit their positions, creating downward pressure.

  2. Too large an unlocked token amount: If the unlocked token amount accounts for a high proportion of the total circulating supply, the impact will be stronger. Projects with unreasonable tokenomics are prone to price collapse.

  3. Token recipients: If a majority of the unlocked tokens go to the project team, advisors, or early investors (who have large profits), the likelihood of selling for profit is high. Conversely, if the tokens are for the community (such as airdrops or staking rewards), the reaction may be more positive.

Real-world examples of Token Unlock

Official Trump (TRUMP)

On April 18, 2025, the price of TRUMP coin fluctuated from $7.77 to $8.63, with a trading volume of approximately $736 million. The unlocking event of 40 million TRUMP tokens on that day accounted for about 20% of the circulating supply, raising concerns about sell pressure and its impact on the coin's value.

However, after that, the price of TRUMP recovered strongly. On April 24, 2025, the price of TRUMP coin increased by more than 60% after the announcement that 220 holders of the most TRUMP would be invited to a private dinner with President Trump.

Aptos (APT)

Unlike the case of TRUMP – where the price increased due to related events – the price of APT was not affected by any positive news.

All three unlocks occurred in a similar pattern:

  • A few days before the unlock, the price was at a local bottom and began to show signs of short liquidations – a sign of preparation for the upcoming increase.

  • Immediately after, the price began to rise gradually and peaked right at the unlock time, creating a false positive sentiment for the market.

  • However, by the third unlock, this scenario was interrupted by Bitcoin's sharp decline after the ETF approval news, leading to APT's price also plummeting alongside BTC.

If there are no fluctuations from the general market, it is highly likely that APT will repeat the previous increase-then-dump pattern as in the previous two times.

How to track Token Unlock

To avoid being surprised by sudden price drops, you need to know the unlock schedule of the projects you are holding. Here are the most reputable tools to track:

Tokenomist

User-friendly interface. Provides detailed information for each unlock: quantity, percentage, recipient group, specific schedule. Can be categorized by weekly, monthly, or upcoming large unlocks.

DeFiLlama

A summary table of projects with upcoming vesting tokens. Can filter by date, unlock quantity, project name.

Monitor from the project itself (X, Discord, Medium)

Most projects will announce the unlock time in advance. Some projects even hold AMAs to explain the unlocking plan to reassure investors.

Is token unlock an opportunity or a risk?

Not all token unlock events lead to price drops.

Do not equate every token unlock with a signal of price decrease. Monitor the unlock schedule early but do not make decisions solely based on it. You should analyze more thoroughly:

  • Who will receive the tokens (team, investors, community?)

  • Do they have motives to sell?

  • Is there any accompanying news?

Stay alert and use token unlock tracking tools like Tokenomist, CryptoRank,... combined with technical analysis and news to make smart investment decisions.

Wishing you success, especially traders who rely on token unlocks for trading.