Current market analysis for $BTC !
The market is at a critical turning point, with the $102,000-$104,000 range becoming the main battleground for both bulls and bears. Prices are fluctuating violently within this range, indicating a significant divergence among market participants.
From a technical perspective, although there was a rapid surge this morning, the sustainability is clearly lacking, and short-term overbought risks are accumulating. The RSI indicator is as high as 76.9, having entered a danger zone, and a profit-taking scenario may occur at any time.
In terms of technical indicators, market signals are contradictory. The MACD red bars continue to expand, but there is a divergence between volume and price. Although the moving average system remains in a bullish arrangement, there is significant resistance at the $104,000 position.
This position is not only a previous high pressure point but also the key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, making it difficult to break through.
For bulls, the $102,000 level is an ideal entry point, coinciding with the daily EMA30 indicator, forming double support. However, it is crucial to be particularly vigilant; if the price falls below $101,500, losses should be cut immediately.
Historically, when the RSI remains above 75, the probability of a pullback reaches as high as 68%.
Bears should pay attention to the $103,500-$104,000 pressure range. If the price retraces to this area, it would present a good shorting opportunity; however, caution is advised, as if the price stabilizes above $104,300, it may trigger a short squeeze, necessitating timely loss-cutting.
On-chain data shows a significant increase in large transfers on May 8, with the number of large transactions over 10,000 BTC rising by 40% month-on-month, indicating that large holders are actively rotating their positions. In the contract market, the overall long-short ratio has dropped to an extreme value of 0.53. Historical data indicates that after similar situations, the probability of a reversal within 72 hours is as high as 81%.
I personally believe that the current market is essentially a way for major funds to wash out leverage through fluctuations.
It is particularly important to be vigilant; if the price breaks through $104,000 under low trading volume, it is likely a false breakout, similar to the sharp decline following the V-shaped reversal on May 7.
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