Dogecoin has spent most of the last three years digesting the 2021 explosion; however, this popular meme coin may soon break out of its consolidation range, according to a newly shared weekly chart on X by anonymous analyst Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto).
Dogecoin 'Looks Amazing'
The DOGE/USDT pair on Binance is creating a weekly candle at $0.1828 (open 0.1705, high 0.1833, low 0.1643), up 7.2% for the week. Two long-term moving averages frame the current structure: the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA-50) at $0.203 in blue and the rising 200-week EMA (EMA-200) at $0.138 in red. The price fell below the EMA-50 earlier this year, but—importantly from Maelius's perspective—never lost the EMA-200, which now lies within the broad demand zone, dark gray running from $0.11 to $0.20.
The second layer of support comes from the ascending red trendline connecting the October 2023, August 2024, and April 2025 swing lows. The most recent pullback, marked as '2' on the chart, bounced almost exactly at the point where that trendline meets the EMA-200 and the lower edge of demand—a three-way confluence area that technicians often regard as a stepping stone for the next advance.
Maelius's main thesis is based on counting the nested Elliott Wave 1-2, 1-2. The first '1-2' sequence begins with a push up to ~$0.2288 in March 2024, retracing to $0.0805 in August of the same year, and then triggering a larger impulse branch peaking near $0.4843 in December last year (labeled as the second '1'). The subsequent retracement to $0.1298 in April completed the second '2'.
In Elliott's terms, two consecutive 1-2 structures 'wind the spring' for wave 3 of (3)—historically the longest and steepest part of an impulse. Maelius places the upcoming third wave, its subsequent fourth wave consolidation, and the final fifth wave in the empty space above the current price.
He predicts DOGE will reach around $1 as part of the third wave, followed by the fourth corrective wave below $0.70. The fifth wave is expected to peak somewhere between $1.30 and $1.70.
Below the price action is the WaveTrend Oscillator (WTO), a momentum indicator closely related to TSI, measuring the distance between the price of an asset and its smoothed value. WTO outputs two lines and a chart; a bullish cycle begins when the faster line crosses above the slower line from the oversold region (–60/–53 in standard settings).
That diagonal has just appeared on the 1-week timeframe for the first time since the low in August 2024. The chart has shifted from dark red to neutral gray, reflecting similar transitions that occurred before previous vertical bull runs of Dogecoin.
When combined, the chart describes a market holding a multi-year accumulation, trading above the 200-week EMA, testing—though not reclaiming—the 50-week EMA, and showing a new bullish momentum crossover. From a purely charting perspective, these components meet many conditions that technicians look for when hunting for the start of a major trend branch.
Maelius concludes: 'DOGE looks amazing here, despite the fact that it has dipped as I initially predicted (expecting EMA50 to hold). Respecting the main demand area, EMA200 as well as the diagonal support, it seems that 1,2,1,2 has completed and now we are heading towards EW 3 (in 3 larger). Recent WTO 1W has crossed, which also supports that the bottom is in.'