#BTCBackto100K Bitcoin has surged to 104,000!
Don't be fooled by this surge. Yesterday, BTC reached recent highs; it seems that everything is going well, but in reality, it conceals danger.
This may be a 'signal of the end of the bubble,' or even a 'harbinger of a major crash.'
Why do I see a bear here?
Global capital markets are entering a phase of systemic risk.
The USA has announced the reintroduction of tariffs on Chinese goods, the trade war is escalating, and global supply chains are under strain. This is not 2008, but it closely resembles 2007 – systemic risk is increasing.
The illusion of rate cuts is shattered, the Fed's position has shifted to hawkish.
The market initially expected interest rate cuts from June, but Powell directly refuted this: 'We have not yet reached the point of rate cuts.' This means that the cost of capital will remain high, further complicating risky assets.
Blockchain data: large players are withdrawing assets.
In the last 48 hours, over 20,000 BTC has been transferred from cold wallets to exchanges. Such volumes of movement are never for 'long-term holding' but are being prepared for a sell-off to cash.
Technical analysis is seriously diverging, extremely overbought, a reversal could happen at any moment.
RSI on the daily chart reaches 92, which is practically a historical extreme; candles and averages are seriously diverging and cannot hold. If there is a correction, it will be a deep trap at the level of thousands of dollars.
Debt pressure in the USA is nearing alarm levels.
Congress is once again discussing raising the debt ceiling, the bond market is highly volatile, investment funds are shifting to dollars and gold, no longer trusting risky assets. BTC appears as a hedge against inflation, but it cannot withstand high interest rates and a strong dollar.
This price surge may be the last gasp for this bull. This wave does not continue the bull market, but is the last trap for the greedy. If you don’t leave now, the next time you wake up, it could be 80,000, 70,000, or even below 60,000; the most brutal place in the market is not the speed of the fall, but that you don’t have time to react.
