Ethereum (ETH) is returning to the main stage. On May 8, Ethereum's price officially broke through the $1,900 mark, rising about 5% within 24 hours, reaching a high of $1,916 at one point. With Bitcoin's price approaching $99,000, Ethereum is also quietly gathering strength. This breakthrough is not just an 'upward arrow' on the technical chart; it resembles a 'return of will' after a long sideways movement—it is setting the stage for a higher target of $2,400.
1. Ethereum Technical Analysis: Breakthrough of Key Resistance, Return of Buying Power
Technical charts show that Ethereum's price has risen above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,853, breaking through a key support area that has long been suppressed. This action is like a 'city wall' that has been breached after a prolonged assault, releasing momentum for further upward movement.
From the daily candlestick pattern, a strong 'bullish engulfing' candlestick pattern has appeared, marking the first clear bullish reversal signal seen in recent weeks. Technical indicators have also warmed up accordingly:
MACD Indicator: The histogram has turned positive again, with both the MACD line and the signal line above the zero axis, indicating that the short-term trend has returned to bullish control;
Fibonacci Retracement Lines: The current price has risen above the 23.6% retracement level, directly targeting key positions at 38.2% ($2,108) and 50% ($2,426).
More importantly, this wave of increase is not 'rootless water'; on-chain data provides substantial support.
2. On-chain data: The buying support range is clear, pushing towards the $2,000 resistance area.
According to the **Global Holding Cost Distribution (GIOM)** data provided by IntotheBlock:
Ethereum has firmly established itself in the $1,858 range;
In the price range of $1,779-$1,858, approximately 7.65 million ETH are held by 7.35 million addresses;
Next, in the range of $1,858-$2,039, 5.76 million ETH are held by 8.14 million addresses, with an average holding cost of about $1,927.
This means: **Between $1,858 and $2,039, there is a 'low selling pressure' upward channel.** As long as there is no sudden change in market sentiment, the 'locked-in positions' in this range will not form substantial resistance to the rise. In other words, there are 'not many obstacles' for Ethereum on its way to $2,000.
The real challenge may appear **above $2,000**. According to data, between $2,000 and $2,492, nearly 69.61 million ETH are held by 12.72 million addresses. This is a typical 'historical locked-in area'—once the price approaches these regions, some investors may choose to 'sell upon breaking even', which could slow down the upward momentum.
3. Pectra upgrade and fundamental resonance: Medium to long-term benefits are still being released.
The strengthening of short-term prices is inseparable from the recovery of market sentiment, but deeper support comes from the progress of Ethereum's own ecosystem. After the completion of the Pectra upgrade, the Ethereum network has ushered in a comprehensive improvement in efficiency and experience:
Faster transaction processing
Gas fees further optimized
Staking mechanisms are more friendly
Especially key proposals such as EIP-7251, EIP-6110, and EIP-7002 make ETH's staking mechanism more attractive to institutional investors. This means that not only retail investors but also long-term funds such as ETFs, pensions, and foundations have more reasons to enter the Ethereum network.
From the perspective of 'on-chain economy', this round of increase is not simply a 'capital game', but a dual driving force brought by 'technical optimization + capital structure'. Each breakthrough of a key resistance area means that network confidence and capital confidence are simultaneously enhanced.
4. Short-term opportunities and risks: $2,000 is a 'psychological battle', $2,400 is a 'technical battle'.
If Ethereum can successfully rise above $2,000 in the next few days, it will enter a more complex game area: on one hand, there is the selling pressure from historical locked positions; on the other hand, there is the heightened demand from market 'FOMO' sentiment. In the short term, the bullish and bearish forces will tug-of-war between $2,000 and $2,400.
If a breakthrough is not achieved in the short term, a pullback may occur to the $1,850-$1,800 area to re-accumulate momentum. If the pullback can receive effective buying support, it will instead build a more robust 'upward step'. Conversely, if it falls below $1,800, one needs to guard against the risk of further adjustment towards $1,600.
However, regardless of how the short term fluctuates, the signals for the medium to long term are gradually becoming clear: Ethereum is advancing on a dual track of 'infrastructure + asset attributes', while the market structure is transitioning from 'retail-led' to 'institutionally supported'. This is not a brief rebound but the starting point for a long-term value reassessment.
At this point, simply 'watching the price' is no longer sufficient to grasp the trend. Real-time insights based on on-chain data, capital flows, sentiment fluctuations, and contract dynamics are needed. Utilizing AI investment research assistants like Mlion.ai can integrate scattered signals into actionable insights, allowing investors to gain insights into trends in seemingly calm yet turbulent markets.
Conclusion: Ethereum's $2,400 is not just a price target, but a 'validation threshold' for ecosystem confidence.
This time, Ethereum's breakthrough at $1,900 is not just a 'price increase' on the technical chart; it hides multiple signals of on-chain economy, institutional allocation, and ecosystem upgrades. The breakthrough at $2,000 is a 'psychological battle', while the challenge at $2,400 is an 'ecosystem validation'.
For investors, this is a period of 'opportunity and volatility coexisting'. One must embrace trends while managing risks. The true winners are those who can understand technical lines as well as on-chain data, policy trends, and capital structures.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market.
