Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated around the $100,000 mark on Thursday as major cryptocurrencies including Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano's ADA led the market's gains, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a pending trade deal hinted at by U.S. President Donald Trump.
DOGE rose 5% and ADA increased 4%, while ether (ETH), BNB Chain, xrp (XRP), and Solana's SOL rose 2%-3%. CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a broad liquidity index tracking the largest tokens, increased by 2.2%.
In a social media post late Wednesday, Trump stated that the United States would announce a "big" trade deal with a "highly respected country" at a press conference scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Bloomberg, Financial Times, and New York Times all identified this country as the United Kingdom.
Trump added that this announcement would mark the beginning of "many" such deals, raising speculation that months of turmoil caused by tariffs could ease, potentially reviving risk appetite across global markets.
Concerns about tariffs have shaken stocks and commodities in recent weeks. Any solution that improves cost dynamics for U.S. businesses could serve as a catalyst for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday was not surprising, although it left the market divided on when to start cuts.
CME's FedWatch tool shows a 55% probability of a rate cut in July at a level of 4.00%-4.25%, even as traders price in an accumulation of 100 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
"Bitcoin is inching back towards the $100,000 level as the Fed's stable interest rate decision and the theme of potential rate cuts in the future are being considered more by traders," said Semir Gabeljic, director of Pythagoras Investments. "Based on the current administration's pressure on the Fed chairman, anything could happen—the only certainty is uncertainty."
Other observers warn that policymakers may be entering a period of stagflation, which occurs when high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and rising unemployment happen simultaneously - considered very harmful to a healthy economy.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, said in a message to CoinDesk that: "The Federal Reserve is facing an increasingly serious policy dilemma, threatening both sides of its dual mandate."
Selby said: "As businesses primarily pass higher tariff costs onto consumers... inflation is expected to accelerate again in the next six months, while labor market indicators show the job outlook is worsening."
Selby further stated that while CF Benchmarks still predicts "interest rates will drop by about 100 basis points by the end of the year," the Fed could make a mistake by acting too late, posing further economic harm risks.
Selby noted that: "In this context of macroeconomic instability, bitcoin has clearly emerged as a major beneficiary," citing record inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, which saw inflows of $4.3 billion in the past month.
Meanwhile, Jupiter Zheng, a partner at HashKey Capital, said the recent price movement of BTC is part of a broader structural shift.
"The rise of Bitcoin is evidence of its ability to hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility," Zheng said. "Investors increasingly view cryptocurrency as a core part of a resilient investment portfolio."
