Under the "hawkish" tone maintained by the Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates unchanged, why has the crypto market "ignored" hawkish warnings and surged strongly, with Bitcoin hitting the 100,000 mark and Ethereum testing the 2,000 level? Multiple intertwined factors are reshaping the market landscape behind this. On the expectation front, the market has fully digested the "no rate cuts in the short term" narrative, with CME rate futures indicating an 85% probability of a rate cut in July, and strong expectations for two rate cuts within the year. The easing expectations beneath the "hawkish facade" support the continued rise of risk assets. Trump's lifting of restrictions on AI technology has instantly ignited enthusiasm for tech stocks. Leading stocks like Nvidia are leading the surge, driving up valuations in the tech sector and attracting significant capital inflows. The hot tech stock market has revived market risk appetite, with Bitcoin, possessing both "digital gold" and "tech asset" attributes, standing out as a target for capital chase. The restart of China-U.S. trade negotiations is also a key variable. The market focuses on Trump's speech, expecting progress on trade issues. Historical experience indicates that when the trade environment improves, the crypto market benefits from rising liquidity expectations and emotional recovery; this restart of negotiations provides support for asset price increases.
Bitcoin's sudden surge, currently testing the 99,850 line, has led many friends to casually ask if it will continue to rise and to what position it might go. Based on Fibonacci extension lines and key resistance levels, Bitcoin's price has two important upward target points in the short term. The first target is around the 101,800 line, which is a strong resistance level formed in a previous trading dense area; once broken, it is expected to further test around 105,000. Observing the volume-price relationship, the current market is dominated by bullish forces, with both open interest and trading volume expanding simultaneously, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of risk control, the probability of a significant pullback resembling a "door painting" is low. Even if a correction occurs in the short term, it is most likely to happen when prices approach the key resistance level around 101,800. Therefore, under the current market environment, a short-term bullish strategy is highly feasible. For entry points, based on the support of the Bollinger Bands' middle track and moving averages, conservative investors may consider buying on dips around 98,400 dollars, while aggressive investors may focus on the 98,800 dollar support level. The 98,400 - 98,800 dollar range has formed an effective support zone, combined with the MACD indicator's upward movement above the zero axis, providing a safety margin for bullish entries. The market sentiment index (Greed and Fear Index) remains in the greed zone, indicating a relatively healthy overall trend. Unless there is a systemic financial risk, significant negative regulatory policies (such as global strengthening of digital currency regulation), or prices effectively break below the 97,000 dollar key support level (which would trigger a large number of stop-loss orders and disrupt the current upward trend), this round of rising market is still expected to continue.
Ethereum's official announcement of the Pectra upgrade activation on the mainnet includes iterations of user experience features for smart account wallets, a 100% increase in storage capacity for data blocks in the L2 expansion plan, and optimizations for the validator's operational interface and performance. From a price-driving factor perspective, the recent rise in Ethereum's price is only weakly correlated with the Pectra upgrade. This round of upward movement is mainly driven by Bitcoin's strong performance and the linkage effect with the U.S. tech sector, while major market capital has completed a reshaping of the long-short game pattern through effective chip cleaning strategies. On the technical side, Ethereum's price shows typical oversold rebound characteristics after undergoing a phase of bottom consolidation, like a compressed spring releasing potential energy, achieving a synchronous resonance with Bitcoin through market sentiment transmission. Based on the technical analysis framework, Ethereum's short-term upward trend is clear, with target price pointing to the 2,000 line. The main resistance area is between 1,990 and 2,020 dollars, which includes important Fibonacci retracement levels and historical dense transaction areas. The support system below is distributed in a step-like manner, with the primary support range being 1,900-1,910 dollars, corresponding to the MA20 moving average on the daily level and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands; the strong support range of 1,830-1,850 has repeatedly pressured recent rebounds.
